Last week’s blog tried to summarize President Trump’s actions at the start of his second term to formalize his denial of climate change. It ended with the observation that his denial stands in contrast to the major progress that was made in 2025, globally and in the US, in the energy transition away from fossil fuels. The year marked great successes in mitigating the prospects of human-triggered (anthropogenic), destructive climate change.
The main argument the Trump administration raises is that any action away from fossil fuels and towards sustainable fuels will damage the economy, thus hurting the people who voted for him in the presidential election. Meanwhile, there has been plenty of progress in the global energy transition. These dynamics can be summarized as Trump trying to swim against the current of progress. Last week’s blog described the present US administration’s “swimming” in a manner similar to most press coverage throughout 2025. This blog will start discussing the “current” instead; this, too, is a more recent media trend:
‘A colossal own goal’: Trump’s exit from global climate treaties will have little effect outside US
How To Lose The War On Renewable Energy, Bigly
The correlation between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions was summarized in the IPAT (Impact, Population, Access, and Technology) equation that was discussed in multiple previous blogs. Just put IPAT into the search box to find all the references for the term. A full discussion of the many aspects of the term can be read in my blog titled “IPAT: Math, Equation, Identity, and Opinion?” (September 24, 2024). The application of the term to the correlation between carbon dioxide emissions and the GDP is shown in equation 1.
- CO2= Population x (GDP/Capita) x (energy/GDP) x (Fossil/Energy) x (CO2/Fossil)
This blog focuses on 6 figures that show the clear separation of carbon dioxide emissions in developed countries (Figure 1) and 5 other graphs focused on the progress recently made in the energy transition. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita by the three largest emitters are shown in Figure 2, the global temperature rise is shown in Figure 3, and Figure 4 shows the global rise in clean energy, electrification, and efficiency. Growth in applications needed for effective use of sustainable energy are shown in Figure 5, and the projected global trends in fossil fuel use, carbon dioxide emissions, and carbon capture and storage are shown in Figure 6.
The first three graphs are posted from Our World in Data, with the primary sources cited in the graphs.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
The last three graphs are taken from a summary of energy transitions in 2025 (The Energy Transition in 2025: What to Watch For – RMI). Again, the primary sources are included in the graphs.
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
President Trump’s first term spanned the period of January 20, 2017 to January 20, 2021. His attitude toward climate change has been similar in his two terms, although it seemed a bit less intense in his first term compared to what he is showing now. A thorough examination of the six graphs above shows no indication that his policies have had any visible impact upon the trend towards clean energy. The prognosis is that the impacts of this term will be similar. The focus of the next blog will be on changes in leadership within the energy transition that have resulted directly from the Trump administration’s changing attitude.