Figure 1 – A bright future
With the winter holidays, the coming new year, and the approaching inauguration of the Trump administration, last week’s blog was focused on longer-term global trends that can lead either to destruction or to a bright, sustainable future that I labeled the modern Garden of Eden. The focus of that blog was five global trends that started around the end of WWII and are currently accelerating. They include climate change, nuclear energy, fertility changes, global electrification, and the digitization of humanity.
Last week’s blog promised that “Some of the efforts to get us to the Garden of Eden will be outlined in the next blog.” This blog will be posted on New Year’s Eve, which is usually a time to be positive and optimistic, so I will focus on our present efforts to achieve a bright, sustainable future. Hopefully, if these efforts continue with some success, they will lead us out of destruction and into our modern Garden of Eden, with more than 8 billion happy people living in a human-created reality that is synchronized with our cosmological reality. In terms of prospects for a beneficial, far-reaching future, there are large differences in the five trends. With nuclear energy, in my opinion, the prospect of destructive military applications outweighs the foreseeable benefits. The wish that was expressed in last week’s blog for fertility changes was that they become independent of economic considerations. In other words, in an ideal world, the rate would be determined solely by the desire for children. Present trends of global electrification and global digitization will, most likely, result in full global penetration. That leaves climate change and our current efforts to replace fossil fuel energy with sustainable sources.
My photograph of the sunset, with dark clouds above New York City, can act as a symbolic outline of my wishes (sunrise might have been more appropriate but I didn’t have good enough example and most people without a good knowledge of the details of NYC cannot distinguish between the two in a photo). Not surprisingly, most of the details of our present efforts to reach a brighter, more sustainable future will be focused on the global effort to mitigate climate change through an energy transition. Some specifics are listed below:
- Efforts towards a fusion-based grid scale operation:
On top of the effort to pursue sustainable energy resources is the search for economic fusion sources. Previous blogs (June 8, 2021, December 12, 2017) discussed the science and some of the difficulties. Figure 2 shows the growth in the number of companies that have joined the effort.
Figure 2 – The number of companies pursuing fusion energy over time (Source: Fusion Energy Base)
The present effort is promising enough to start exploring the distribution of the energy released through the electric grid:
WASHINGTON, Dec 17 (Reuters) – Commonwealth Fusion Systems, a private company spun off from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, plans what it calls the world’s first grid-scale fusion power plant in Virginia, to generate power by the early 2030s, the company said on Tuesday.
The project, if successful, could revolutionize the global energy industry by tapping into a virtually limitless power source, similar to that which fuels the stars.
The progress is happening so fast that last week’s blog tries to make the case that conservation of energy does not apply – a circular economy is a must!
- Expansion of research and the development of new energy sources.
A good example is the attempts to use geothermal energy from deep inside the Earth:
Geothermal energy has enabled Finland to decarbonise its industries and reduce hydrocarbon import costs, making it an example for the whole world to emulate. Volcanoes exist in many parts of the world, but few allow safe and viable drilling with the technology we currently possess, so their implementation is still far from accessible.
However, CGG, a firm specialising in geophysical sciences and their implementation in new technologies, claims that they would be able to exploit geothermal energy at great sea depths to extract the heat that escapes between tectonic plates. The idea would be to install offshore geothermal plants equipped with a new 20-kilometre borehole developed by the MIT start-up.
The project proposes to install a plant in the North Sea, where conditions are similar to those found in Finland but extend over an area of about 65,000 square kilometres. There are geological fissures and igneous rocks there that could generate energy for 20 million years by extracting just 0.1% of the existing heat, with cheaper facilities and a stable supply.
- Scale-up of solar energy
The magnitude of the scale-up is shown below:
Photovoltaic (PV) installations are a leading technology for generating green electricity and reducing carbon emissions. Roofing highways with solar panels offers a new opportunity for PV development, but its potential of global deployment and associated socio-economic impacts have not been investigated. Here, we combine solar PV output modeling with the global highway distribution and levelized cost of electricity to estimate the potential and economic feasibility of deploying highway PV systems worldwide. We also quantify its co-benefits of reducing CO2 equivalent emissions and traffic losses (road traffic deaths and socio-economic burdens). Our analysis reveals a potential for generating 17.58 PWh yr−1 of electricity, of which nearly 56% can be realized at a cost below US$100 MWh−1. Achieving the full highway PV potential could offset 28.78% (28.21%–29.1%) of the global total carbon emissions in 2018, prevent approximately 0.15 million road traffic deaths, and reduce US$0.43 ± 0.16 trillion socio-economic burdens per year. Highway PV projects could bring a net return of about US$14.42 ± 4.04 trillion over a 25-year lifetime. To exploit the full potential of highway PV, countries with various income levels must strengthen cooperation and balance the multiple socio-economic co-benefits.
One good example of scaling up the use of solar cells is the move to cover roads with the devices (see “Solar Roads: Driving into the Future” from February 18, 2020).
A groundbreaking proposal suggests that 52 billion solar panels could soon line the American highway network. This ambitious initiative has been put forward by researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tsinghua University, the Chinese Academy of Geosciences, and Columbia University, aiming to transform major global highways with solar energy integration.
- Smaller scale experimenting can bring large dividends:
Mercedes-Benz has shared what it describes as an “exclusive insight into research activities and future technologies,” showcasing several innovations currently under feasibility testing.
The innovations span a range of concepts, from augmented reality glasses to alternatives to leather, made from recycled plastic and biotechnologically produced materials.
Other developments include a regenerative brake integrated into the engine and transmission unit of electric cars, which is virtually maintenance-free and wear-free, as well as drive batteries regulated at the cell level.
Among the innovations is a “solar paint,” a PV coating designed for vehicle power generation. This coating consists of “innovative solar modules” just 5 micrometers thick, applied seamlessly to the car body like a wafer-thin paste.
- Legal actions that can accelerate the transition. Two examples, one from a local US state court and the other from a case in front of the International Criminal Court can serve as examples:
NYT: North Carolina Town Sues Duke Energy Over Climate Change
A North Carolina town filed a lawsuit on Wednesday accusing Duke Energy, one of the nation’s largest utility companies, of deceiving the public about climate change and contributing to the warming of the planet.
The mayor and City Council of Carrboro, a town next to Chapel Hill, said in its lawsuit in North Carolina Superior Court that Duke Energy had known for decades that its operations contributed to the climate crisis but failed to curb its emissions of greenhouse gases. Instead, the lawsuit argues, the company increased its use of fossil fuels, often in disadvantaged communities.
NYT: What Can the World’s Top Court Do About Climate Change?
The International Court of Justice will begin hearing arguments on Monday in a major case on how international laws can be used to protect the climate as global warming accelerates. It is the first time that the court, which is the United Nations’ highest judicial body, has taken up the climate issue, and a key issue at play is whether big polluters can be sued for failing to slow down climate change.
The court, a 15-judge body in The Hague that deals with disputes among nations, is holding the hearings over the next two weeks in response to a request submitted last year by the United Nations General Assembly.
The General Assembly asked the court to give its opinion on two questions: What obligations do governments have under international law to protect the Earth’s climate system from greenhouse gases? And what are the “legal consequences” if governments have failed in their obligations and “caused significant harm”?
Happy New Year, everyone!
