(Source: Lauren Pyke, The Daily Tar Heel)
Last week’s blog returned to the issue of declining global enrollment in universities. I looked specifically at the impacts of the ongoing trend of declining global fertility, with a focus on the US. This declining enrollment has major consequences for the economic viability of many schools. Such threats require action. The question that was raised in last week’s blog was what schools should do in response to these trends.
I will start the discussion with an AI (through Google) response:
When facing declining enrollments, schools typically respond by: consolidating or closing underutilized schools, cutting programs or staff, seeking new student populations through marketing and outreach, reviewing budgets to find efficiencies, and engaging with the community to understand the reasons behind the decline and address concerns; in extreme cases, they might even consider merging with other institutions to maintain financial stability.
The first option is obviously for an institution to close its doors:
American higher education is in crisis.
This year, some two dozen colleges shut their doors and more are forecast to close in 2025, CNBC reports. According to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, as many as 80 colleges and universities are expected to close in the next five years.
That working paper from the Fed based its analysis on a massive dataset of college and university information from 2002 to 2023, which predicted future closures through a model using machine learning. It found that of the 100 riskiest institutions it assessed, 84 closed within a three-year period. Researchers then predicted the likelihood of future closures, factoring in a 15% decline in enrollment between 2025 and 2029.
Many colleges are struggling financially as enrollment falls, the result of skyrocketing tuition costs and students questioning if the degree is even worth the hefty price tag.
The second option is to go through college activities and find out which courses students like and which ones have difficulty attracting students. Since in most universities’ curricula the faculty determines which courses are needed to fulfill degree requirements, it is beneficial to go over the list of degrees that the university offers. This is exactly what the University of Connecticut recently did (Another Public Flagship May Cut Dozens of Majors):
Faculty members at the University of Connecticut worry that dozens of majors could face elimination as part of a review of low-enrollment programs — a process that began amid a significant budget deficit.
The Details
Christopher Vials, an English professor at UConn’s flagship campus in Storrs and president of its American Association of University Professors chapter, said 70 majors were identified as having failed to meet a threshold of 100 student completions over the last five years.
Faculty members found out about the review in May when the provost’s office asked departments with low-enrollment programs to complete an evaluation report that Vials characterized as tasking them to “justify their continued existence.”
“It is anticipated that the end result for the review of low-completion programs will result in the closure of some programs,” Anne D’alleva, the provost, and Gladis Kersaint, the vice provost for academic affairs, wrote in a memo to all academic deans.
Majors like philosophy, women’s, gender, and sexuality studies, and animal science are on the chopping block. With the exception of Spanish, every program within the university’s literatures, cultures, and languages department is under review. The department, which houses nine majors, is seemingly divided on its next step, as it postponed a vote on Wednesday on whether it should move forward with the provost’s review or preemptively merge its majors into one or two programs, Vials said.
Almost all universities operate under the stressful tension between fluctuating enrollment, budget, and faculty tenure. A recent example from Wisconsin is shown below:
Chancellor Mark Mone revealed the layoffs in a letter sent Monday to faculty and staff.
The job cuts come after the UW System said it will close its campuses in Waukesha and Washington counties.
In addition to the layoffs, Mone recommended shutting down UW-Milwaukee’s College of General Studies and its three academic departments: Arts & Humanities, Math & Natural Sciences, and Social Sciences & Business.
“I am deeply saddened by this scenario and wish it were not occurring. However, proceeding with the proposal is aligned with our mission and is the most responsible decision for UWM’s future,” Mone said in the letter.
The UW Board of Regents must approve the cuts.
University mergers are another option. One can find a few examples in a piece from Forbes that distinguished between the closing of mainly for-profit public universities and mergers in mainly public universities:
When we turn to public colleges and universities, the picture looks different. It’s a truism to note that public colleges don’t shut their doors that frequently. Just four did from 2013–14, according to the National Center for Education Statistics (although Higher Ed Dive suggests the number is much higher).
Mergers is likely how consolidation will impact public colleges and universities—particularly regional schools in areas of lower or declining population. And indeed, consolidation has already been occurring—so much so that it’s sometimes hard to keep track.
The University System of Georgia has gone from 35 institutions to 26.
In 2017–18, the University of Wisconsin System consolidated its 13 two-year college campuses into seven of its comprehensive universities. UW Platteville at Richland, UW Milwaukee at Washington County, UW Oshkosh at Fond du Lac, UW Green Bay at Marinette, UW Milwaukee at Waukesha, and UW Oshkosh at Fox Cities have all effectively closed over the past couple years—even though they don’t count in official statistics, as this Inside Higher Ed piece makes clear. More consolidation conversations are taking place in the state.
Pennsylvania is merging six of its Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education institutions into two universities.
In Maine, the system didn’t technically merge or consolidate, but instead moved to a “unified accreditation” for the system. Which, yes, means that the System’s seven main campuses now operate under the same accreditation.
In 2023, Connecticut’s 12 community colleges merged into one.
In Louisiana, eight technical and community colleges merged campuses.
The Chronicle of Higher Education is trying to find out if such college responses are consistent with higher education’s objective of preparing students for post-graduation life by introducing the term of upskilling:
Colleges typically prioritize those who are preparing to enter the workforce, teaching them what they’ll need to know in order to thrive in a working society. But, what about those already in the workforce? Those left behind by sudden changes in technology and changing labor expectations? Historically, universities have prioritized educating those between 18- and 24-years-old.
But, the needs of the workforce change over time. This is especially true in an age where AI and automation are making inroads into every industry. It’s time colleges adapt with the workforce. And upskilling may be the answer — whether that comes in the form of microcredentialing, skills-based training, or whatever else.
Google is again helpful in clarifying terms:
“Upskilling: A New Frontier for Higher Ed” refers to the growing trend where universities and colleges are actively developing and offering programs specifically designed to equip students and working professionals with in-demand skills needed for the modern workforce, often focusing on shorter, more flexible learning pathways to address the rapidly evolving job market, going beyond traditional degree programs to provide targeted skill development.
All of this is taking place as a background for what is now a challenging time for college presidents trying to coexist with changing political priorities as well as addressing global conflicts and internal polarization that are likely to grow with the coming change in government.
In the next blog, I will continue to discuss these tensions, with an increasing emphasis on multilevel assessments that are now gaining importance in school accreditation.
