Figure 1 – Predicted population plunge, 2025-2050 (Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2024, via IMF)
I asked AI (through Copilot) what different countries are doing to reverse declining fertility. In this case, the relevant countries include China, Japan, South Korea, Germany, and Thailand. Countries like Ukraine and Russia, which appear in Figure 1, are not included because while war is an “obvious” mechanism for population decline, the change does not reflect fertility rates. I am copying the AI summaries below,
China:
China is ramping up national efforts to reverse its declining birth rate by offering financial incentives, expanding childcare access, and improving reproductive healthcare.
Here’s a detailed look at the key measures China is implementing:
🍼 National-Level Policies
- Childcare Subsidy: As of July 2025, families receive 3,000 yuan (~$418) annually for each child under age three.
- Free Preschool Education: Beijing plans to roll out free preschool nationwide, reducing early education costs for families.
- Epidural Access Mandate: All hospitals with over 500 beds must offer epidural anesthesia during childbirth by the end of 2025, and smaller hospitals by 2027.
🏡 Local Incentives
- Hohhot (Inner Mongolia): Offers up to 100,000 yuan (~$13,900) per family for having a second and third child, paid annually until the child turns 10.
- Hangzhou and Other Cities: Provide childcare vouchers, daycare subsidies, housing support, and job training for parents.
🧬 Fertility Support
- Insurance Coverage for IVF: Public health insurance now covers assisted reproductive technologies (ART) like IVF in cities such as Beijing. Over 32,000 patients accessed these services in the first nine months after coverage began.
⚠️ Challenges and Limitations
- High Cost of Child-Rearing: Raising a child in China costs over 538,000 yuan—more than 6.3 times the GDP per capita.
- Cultural and Economic Barriers: Young people are delaying marriage, and many women cite career pressures, gender inequality, and employment insecurity as reasons for not having children.
- Limited Impact So Far: Despite these efforts, birth rates have only slightly increased in some regions, and the national population continues to decline.
Japan:
Japan is tackling its fertility crisis with a sweeping “New Dimension” strategy that includes expanded child allowances, universal daycare, and enhanced parental leave benefits.
Here’s a breakdown of Japan’s latest efforts to reverse its declining birth rate:
🍼 “New Dimension” Fertility Strategy
Launched by Prime Minister Kishida Fumio in 2023, this initiative includes four major pillars:
- Expanded Child Allowances:
- Monthly payments doubled to 30,000 yen (~$200) for the third child and beyond.
- Eligibility extended to high school students.
- Income caps abolished, allowing all families to receive support.
- Universal Daycare Access:
- Previously, unemployed parents couldn’t use daycare centers.
- Now, all children are eligible, regardless of parental employment status.
- Maternity Expense Coverage:
- Social insurance will now cover maternity-related costs, reducing out-of-pocket expenses.
Enhanced Parental Leave Benefits:
- If both parents take leave, they receive 100% of their after-tax income for up to 28 days (up from 80%).
💰 Financial Commitment
- Japan earmarked 5.3 trillion yen (~$34 billion) in 2025 alone to support families.
- An additional 3.6 trillion yen annually will be spent over the next three years on child allowances, education, and childcare.
🌍 Immigration Reform
- Japan is loosening visa rules to attract foreign workers, especially in elder care and agriculture.
- Goal: Triple the number of foreign workers by 2040 to offset labor shortages.
⚠️ Challenges Ahead
- Japan’s fertility rate hit 1.20 in 2024—far below the replacement rate of 2.1.
- Births dropped to 730,000 last year, while deaths hit 1.58 million.
- Experts warn that cultural shifts, workplace reform, and gender equality are also crucial to reversing the trend.
South Korea:
South Korea is confronting its record-low fertility rate with aggressive national policies, local incentives, and cultural reforms—but the challenge remains steep.
Here’s a comprehensive look at what South Korea is doing:
🍼 National-Level Policies
- Expanded Parental Leave:
- Parents can now take up to 18 months of paid leave.
- Government covers 80% of income for the first 3 months, then 50% for the remainder.
- Childcare Subsidies:
- Monthly cash allowances of up to 700,000 won (~$520) for children under 12 months.
- Free childcare services for children aged 0–5.
- Fertility Treatment Support:
- IVF and other assisted reproductive technologies are fully covered by national health insurance for eligible couples.
- Education Cost Relief:
- Government is expanding free preschool and subsidizing after-school programs to reduce the burden on working parents.
Local Government Incentives
- Hwaseong City:
- Offers 100 million won (~$74,000) in housing subsidies for families with three or more children.
- Sejong City:
- Provides priority housing, free public transport, and childcare vouchers to families with multiple children.
- Other Municipalities:
- Some offer cash bonuses, discounted utilities, and parenting support centers.
👩💼 Workplace Reforms
- Flexible Work Hours:
- Encouraging companies to adopt family-friendly schedules and remote work options.
- Anti-Discrimination Enforcement:
- Strengthening laws to protect women from pregnancy-related job discrimination.
📉 The Challenge
- South Korea’s fertility rate dropped to 0.72 in 2024—the lowest in the world.
- Births fell below 230,000, while deaths exceeded 370,000.
- Cultural factors—long work hours, high education costs, gender inequality, and housing prices—continue to deter young couples from having children.
Germany:
Germany is expanding parental benefits, childcare access, and workplace flexibility to counter its declining fertility rate, which fell to 1.35 in 2024—the lowest in nearly two decades.
Here’s a detailed look at Germany’s approach:
🍼 Family and Childcare Support
- Parental Leave Benefits:
- Parents can take up to 14 months of paid leave, with 67% of net income covered.
- If both parents share leave, they receive two extra months of benefits.
- Elterngeld Plus Program:
- Allows parents to stretch benefits over a longer period if they work part-time.
- Designed to support dual-income families and encourage shared parenting.
- Childcare Expansion:
- Federal and state governments are investing in Kita (daycare) infrastructure.
- Goal: Universal access to full-day childcare by 2030.
🏡 Financial Incentives
- Kindergeld (Child Benefit):
- Monthly payments of 250 euros per child, regardless of income.
- Paid until the child turns 18, or 25 if in education or training.
- Tax Relief for Families:
- Families receive income tax deductions and housing subsidies based on number of children.
👩💼 Workplace and Gender Equality
- Flexible Work Laws:
- Employees can request reduced hours or remote work to balance family life.
- Employers are encouraged to offer family-friendly schedules.
- Gender Equality Measures:
- Government campaigns promote equal parenting roles and female workforce participation.
- Funding for women’s career re-entry programs after maternity leave.
📉 Fertility Trends and Challenges
- Fertility Rate: Dropped to 1.35 children per woman in 2024, with German citizens averaging just 1.23.
- Births: Only 677,117 children were born in 2024—a 2% decline from 2023.
- Average Age of First-Time Parents: 30.4 years for mothers, 33.3 for fathers.
- Regional Gaps: Berlin had the lowest fertility rate (1.21), while Lower Saxony had the highest (1.42).
Thailand:
Thailand is expanding parental leave, introducing paternity benefits, and enhancing workplace support to address its declining fertility rate, which stands at just 1.2 births per woman in 2025.
Here’s a detailed look at Thailand’s latest efforts:
🍼 Expanded Parental Leave (2025 Draft Legislation)
- Maternity Leave: Increased from 98 to 120 calendar days.
- Employers must pay full salary for the first 60 days.
- Social security covers 50% of wages for the next 45 days.
- Final 15 days are unpaid.
- Paternity/Spousal Leave:
- 15 paid workdays for the mother’s partner, gender-neutral.
- Must be taken within 90 days of birth, paid fully by the employer.
- Carer Leave:
- Mothers can take 15 workdays at 50% pay if the child has health issues.
- Leave must be taken as one continuous period.
🧑💼 Employer Implications
- The bill shifts more financial responsibility to employers, especially for maternity and spousal leave.
- Currently, only a minority of Thai companies offer benefits beyond statutory requirements.
📉 Fertility Crisis Context
- Thailand’s fertility rate is among the lowest in Southeast Asia, far below the replacement level of 2.1.
- A recent survey found that while 71% of Thais view the declining birth rate as a crisis, only 35.8% plan to have children.
- Experts warn of a shrinking workforce and urge urgent policy action.
Following the nature of the question – “reverse declining fertility,” the responses focus on mitigating declining fertility. The next blog will focus on adaptation to declining fertility, using the same methodology.