(Source: reddit)
I am writing this blog as a continuation of last week’s blog, “The Power and Fear Motivating the Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons,” which focused on the 7 largest nuclear weapons holders. This blog will focus on North Korea and Israel—the two smallest holders—and the group of countries that comes under the definition of “threshold states.”
North Korea and Israel’s direct paths to nuclear weapons were shown in last week’s blog. Below, I am adding some background:
North Korea
To understand Korea’s drift toward nuclear weapons, we have to start with its split into two different countries (Korean conflict – Wikipedia):
The Korean conflict is an ongoing conflict based on the division of Korea between North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) and South Korea (Republic of Korea), both of which claim to be the sole legitimate government of all of Korea. During the Cold War, North Korea was backed by the Soviet Union, China, and other communist allies, while South Korea was backed by the United States, United Kingdom, and other Western allies.The division of Korea by the United States and the Soviet Union occurred in 1945 after the defeat of Japan ended Japanese rule of Korea, and both superpowers created separate governments in 1948. Tensions erupted into the Korean War, which lasted from 1950 to 1953. When the war ended, both countries were devastated, but the division remained. North and South Korea continued a military standoff, with periodic clashes. The conflict survived the end of the Cold War and is still ongoing. It is now considered one of the 10 frozen conflicts of the world and is considered one of the oldest, along with the Sino-Taiwanese conflict.
North Korea felt isolated; the support that it got from the communist world during the Cold War was far from enthusiastic. The relative success of South Korea in improving the lives of its citizens was overwhelming. North Korea’s autocratic government felt the need for nuclear weapons to protect it from attempts to overtake it by South Korea and its Western allies. Below is a short summary of the history of their acquisition of the weapon (North Korea and weapons of mass destruction – Wikipedia):
For a chronological guide, see Timeline of the North Korean nuclear program.North Korea showed an interest in developing nuclear weapons as early as the 1950s.[11] The nuclear program can be traced back to about 1962, when North Korea committed itself to what it called “all-fortressization”, which was the beginning of the hyper-militarized North Korea of today.[12] In 1963, North Korea asked the Soviet Union for help in developing nuclear weapons, but was refused. The Soviet Union agreed to help North Korea develop a peaceful nuclear energy program, including the training of nuclear scientists. Later, China, after its nuclear tests, similarly rejected North Korean requests for help with developing nuclear weapons.[13]
As we will see shortly, South Korea is one of the “threshold states” and the movement of information between North and South Korea was not insurmountable.
Israel
A few additional selected paragraphs are given below from one of the AI sources mentioned in last week’s blog regarding Israel’s path to nuclear weapons (Nuclear weapons and Israel – Wikipedia):
Before Dimona, 1949–1956Israel’s first prime minister David Ben-Gurion was “nearly obsessed” with obtaining nuclear weapons to prevent the Holocaust from reoccurring. He stated, “What Einstein, Oppenheimer, and Teller, the three of them are Jews, made for the United States, could also be done by scientists in Israel, for their own people.”[37] Ben-Gurion decided to recruit Jewish scientists from abroad even before the end of the 1948 Arab–Israeli War that established Israel’s independence. He and others, such as head of the Weizmann Institute of Science and defense ministry scientist Ernst David Bergmann, believed and hoped that Jewish scientists such as Oppenheimer and Teller would help Israel.[38]
Threshold States
In addition to the 9 countries that are known to have nuclear weapons, the top figure in last week’s blog showed countries that “want” nuclear weapons. These include South Africa, Iran, Germany, Poland, Japan, and South Korea. The top map of this blog includes under the category of “nuclear-threshold states” the following countries: South Africa, Australia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Iran, and Canada. Well, I asked AI (through Google) to define “threshold states” and list them. This is what I got:
The countries generally recognized as having nuclear weapons are the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. “Threshold” countries are those that are believed to have the technical capacity to quickly develop nuclear weapons but have not yet done so. Here’s a breakdown:Nuclear Weapons States:United States, Russia, China, France, United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. Nuclear Threshold States (Examples):
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- Iran:Has a nuclear program and is considered by many to be a threshold state.
- Japan:Has advanced nuclear technology and the potential to develop weapons quickly.
- South Korea:A close ally of the US with a strong industrial base and potential nuclear capabilities.
- Canada:Has advanced nuclear technology and a history of nuclear research.
- Germany:A technologically advanced nation with nuclear power plants and expertise.
- Taiwan:A close US ally with concerns about China’s military buildup.
- South Africa:Once had nuclear weapons but dismantled its program.
- Brazil:Has the technical capability and resources to develop nuclear weapons.
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It is important that the list calls these examples, meaning that they do not necessarily include all the relevant countries. However, the only country in the list that doesn’t show on either of the maps is Taiwan.
To put this discussion into context, President Trump just threatened that if Brazil does not stop the “witch hunt trial” of his friend and its ex-president, Jair Bolsonaro, he will impose a 50% tariff on the country (Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Brazil if it doesn’t stop the Bolsonaro ‘witch hunt’ trial | CNN Business). He has forgotten (or doesn’t know) that Brazil is listed on more than one source as a threshold state.
I was hoping that by now the Israel-Gaza war would have subsided, which for some time now has seemed imminent, especially after Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent visit to Washington. This doesn’t look like it is happening. In the next blog, I will return to other global and local threats, starting with some of the impacts of the major changes the Trump administration is initiating.