Doomsday Clock (Source: BBC)
I finished last week’s blog with the following paragraph:
Next week’s blog will be the last attempt to connect the Holocaust experience to the present reality. It will focus on the practice in certain quarters of using the Holocaust as a shield to cover aspects of present realities.
On Thursday (June 13th), I had almost finished that blog. However, as often happens in blogs that aim to discuss changing environments, changes can take place unpredictably fast. For me such a change took place with the Israeli attack on Iran on Thursday evening (NY time). The main question that I—and most of humanity—have is, how will this war end?
The figure at the top, with the link below, is an attempt to predict a relative timeline for nuclear doomsday for humanity. A valid question to ask is: will this conflict accelerate the timeline? A short description from the same link outlines how the Doomsday Clock works:
The Doomsday Clock – which shows how symbolically close the world is to nuclear Armageddon – is to remain at 90 seconds to midnight.
Scientists have listed reasons for keeping its hands the closest they have ever been to “Doomsday” – but stopped short of nudging it further forward.
The threat of a new nuclear arms race, the Ukraine war and climate change concerns were all factors, they said.
The clock is set annually by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Since 2007, members have considered the impact of new man-made risks such as AI and climate change, as well as the greatest threat – nuclear war.
The last two years (2023-2024), the clock moved forward because of “War in Ukraine, Nuclear, bio, climate and AI concerns.” AI was added in 2024. How much the new Israel-Iran war can be defined as “defensive” if nuclear war is added, is unknown.
The Russian attack on Ukraine was added mainly because Russia is the only nuclear power in this war and Ukraine is doing relatively well and is being supported by most in the rich West. Russia regularly threatens to respond by starting a nuclear WWIII.
As I mentioned in previous blogs, I am a dual citizen of Israel and the US. I love Israel; I have family and friends there, but I don’t love the present government. I also don’t love the present American government. I am deeply worried. I, like most people, have no idea how the new war will end. The “official” reasoning that Israel gave for the attack was to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. It viewed nuclear weapons at the hands of the present Iranian government as an existential threat. It viewed diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons as failing.
By most accounts, Israel has nuclear weapons. It is not surprising that despite my dislike of both the Israeli and the American governments, I view nuclear war capabilities in the hands of the present Iranian regime as a much greater danger for instigating nuclear war than the threat posed by both the US and Israel.
Israel has a long-standing policy of taking preventive military action to stop its adversaries who have declared policies to destroy it from acquiring nuclear weapons. This policy is referred to as the Begin Doctrine:
The Begin Doctrine is the common term for the Israeli government’s preventive strike, counter-proliferation policy regarding their potential enemies’ capability to possess weapons of mass destruction (WMD), particularly nuclear weapons.
The roots of this doctrine can be tracked at least to Operation Damocles at the beginning of 1960s. Secret and diplomatic operations against the Iraqi nuclear program were started by the Yitzhak Rabin government in the mid-1970s.
The doctrine itself was enunciated by Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin in June 1981, following Israel’s attack on Iraq‘s nuclear reactor Osirak in Operation Opera. The doctrine remains a feature of Israeli security planning.[1] The initial government statement on the incident stated: “On no account shall we permit an enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction against the people of Israel. We shall defend the citizens of Israel in good time and with all the means at our disposal.”[2]
Two days after the attack in a dramatic press conference in Tel Aviv, Prime Minister Begin took full responsibility for the operation, praised its execution as extraordinary, and justified it both on moral and legal grounds.
Other examples of the doctrine can be seen in the Israeli strikes on nuclear reactors in Iraq (1981) and Syria (2007).
The Begin Doctrine was not, up to now, a major consideration in the setting of the Doomsday Clock. It remains to be seen if this will now change. The 1981 and the 2007 Israeli strike on Iraq’s and Syria’s nuclear reactors were targeted strikes. There were limited opportunities for the conflicts to expand further. The Israel-Iran war is different. A paragraph from an article on the issue is cited below (NYT; Much of Iran’s Nuclear Program Remains After Israel’s Strikes. At Least for Now.):
“Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs — nine,” he said. (Other experts put the figure slightly higher, at 10, but the actual number would depend on how efficiently the Iranians prove to be at producing a warhead or a bomb.)
Mr. Netanyahu went on to discuss the danger he believed the stockpile’s existence posed: “In recent months, Iran has taken steps that it has never taken before, steps to weaponize this enriched uranium.” He argued that if Iran was not stopped, it “could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time.” “It could be in a year,” he said, “it could be within a few months — it could be less than a year.”
It could have easily been yesterday. All of these estimates are based on intelligence. Good as the Israeli intelligence is, it is rarely certain. The head of the Israeli intelligence is now in the process of being replaced.
We will follow the developments and pray!