ClimateChangeFork

Guest Blog by Sofia Ahsanuddin: Sacred Earth, Sacred Self

Posted on June 16, 2015 by climatechangefork

In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful

The Animals’ Lawsuit Against Humanity is a 1,000-year-old Islamic tale that examines the conception of Promethean Man and his domination and destruction of the natural world. Embedded within the 22^nd Rasa’il (Epistle) of the Ikhwan al-Safa’ (otherwise known to medieval Europeans as the “Brethren of Purity”), this 10^th century Islamic fable chronicles a series of fictitious debates in a court of law between various animal species and representatives of the Bani Adam (Children of Adam), that had colonized and settled the island on which the animals lived. Animals such as the jackal and the nightingale bear testimony against the human settlers before the king of the jinn because of their mistreatment at the hands of Bani Adam. While the tale was later translated into Hebrew by a Jewish scholar at the request of Charles of Anjou (a medieval Christian king), the original Arabic version is strikingly beautiful. The language forges poignant connections between the animal welfare concerns of 10th-century Basra, Iraq and the crises of the modern world, namely those related to human-caused global climate change and its grave implications for endangered species and their threatened habitats.

Indeed, as Dr. Seyyed Hossein Nasr notes in his doctoral dissertation entitled, An Introduction to Islamic Cosmological Doctrines, the timeliness and contemporary relevance of this didactic tale lies in its reflection on the universal “lower self” of man and his potential for ruthless destruction irrespective of time. Man, in his hubris and egocentrism, oppresses all that which exists in the natural world with the justification of fulfilling “human needs,” all the while making his “rights over other creatures absolute.”¹ Dr. Nasr argues that this hubris has always existed but became particularly emphasized and popularized with the rise of Renaissance humanism and the “idealization of Promethean man” in the contemporary era. What is interesting about The Animals’ Lawsuit Against Humanity is that the animals successfully counter each of the arguments the human settlers present to excuse their actions; however, the “possibility of a number among men to attain sanctity and therefore to be able to act as the channel of grace for the rest of God’s creation” serves as the ultimate reason for the jinn king’s refusal to punish all of Bani Adam for their transgressions against nature. But this divine pardon rests on one condition: man must strive to fulfill his God-given responsibility of being a viceregent on Earth (khilafat Allah fi’l-ard), a major mortal function described extensively in the Qur’an, by first overcoming the “self-aggrandizement” and hubris that compelled him to disregard the well-being of the animals in the first place.

Ramadan Greeting: Ramadan Kareem As observant Muslims worldwide prepare for the Islamic holy month of Ramadan 1436 AH, we are reminded of our collective responsibility to protect and cherish the amana, or trust, of the Earth given to us by God in addition to caring for our fellow human beings. During the “month of mercy,” all able-bodied adult Muslims abstain from food, drink, and marital relations from dawn to dusk in a sincere effort to increase piety and taqwa, or God-consciousness. Many nights are spent in deep meditation and prayer. It is tradition for observant Muslims to complete and reflect on at least one reading of the Qur’an (“The Recitation”), which Muslims believe is the final and unaltered revelation from God to the Prophet Muhammad (upon him be peace and blessings) in a long series of divinely-inspired books revealed to other honorable messengers like Moses, Jesus, and Abraham (peace be upon all of them) as divine guidance for their respective peoples. As God declares in Surat Al-Baqarah (Chapter Two) of the Qur’an:

O you who have believed, decreed upon you is fasting as it was decreed upon those before you that you may become righteous – [Fasting for] a limited number of days. So whoever among you is ill or on a journey [during them] – then an equal number of days [are to be made up]. And upon those who are able [to fast, but with hardship] – a ransom [as substitute] of feeding a poor person [each day]. And whoever volunteers excess – it is better for him. But to fast is best for you, if you only knew.²

This Ramadan will be the longest and hottest in my lifetime – in New York City, Muslims will fast for approximately seventeen hours during some of the hottest days of the year. While there are some health benefits involved in the actual act of intermittent fasting (detoxification is just one), the self-discipline involved in going about one’s ordinary day without any food or water is also important. It relates to the idea of conquering one’s ego for the sake of improving one’s character and relationship with God and with others. The purpose of fasting is two-fold; we are taught to become “righteous” people by learning empathy for the less fortunate and we are also taught to subdue the self, which has tremendous implications not only for the way we treat other people but also for how we treat the Earth and other sentient beings like the animals discussed in the fable earlier. Eco Islam

We are reminded of the importance of being just and kind to all and that there is the potential for both great good and great evil in each of us. Moreover, we are taught to appreciate all that we do have – as the Qur’an relates the story of the Children of Israel, God states: “And [recall] when We took your covenant, [O Children of Israel, to abide by the Torah] and We raised over you the mount, [saying], “Take what We have given you with determination and remember what is in it that perhaps you may become righteous.”³ In the same Surah, God declares: “O you who have believed, eat from the good things which We have provided for you and be grateful to God if it is [indeed] Him that you worship.”⁴ Essentially, fasting becomes an obligation for those who believe in the finality and authenticity of the message of Islam so that they may increase in their remembrance of God and appreciate the mercy He has bestowed upon the human race. Just as fasting allows one to cleanse one’s physical body of impurities it also allows one to reflect on the act of “cleansing” one’s spiritual state. One such avenue to spiritual purification is to refrain from actions that would potentially lead to corruption, such as the “pollution of the environment, depletion of natural resources, and wasteful consumption.”⁵ In Surat Al-‘A’rāf of the Qur’an, God instructs man to eat and drink in moderation but to not indulge in wastefulness – He states, “O children of Adam! Wear your beautiful apparel at every time and place of prayer: eat and drink: but waste not by excess for God does not love those who waste.”⁶

In Shari’ah, or Islamic Law, the juristic principle, “there shall be no damage and no infliction of damage”⁷ is extensively applied to “almost every conduct in dealing with the environment (e.g. matters of land, water use, building construction, waste disposal, and so on)”⁸ so that the human being remains vigilant of his obligation to care for the Earth, its resources, and wildlife. In other words, this aversion to harm takes precedence over any “acquisition of benefits” and is considered better than the need for remediation after such corruption has occurred.⁷ This is because the Shari’ah is based on the principle that everything belongs to God and God alone. “People do not in fact own things, for the only real owner of things is their Creator, be He glorified and exalted. Indeed, people do not own anything but their usufruct in the manner permitted by the revealed Law.”⁹ As such, the right to use private property or environmental resources is a temporary trust given to man with the condition that he makes use of this trust in accordance with its “divinely ordained purposes.”⁷ And while the attitude of Islam to the “environment, the sources of life, and the resources of nature” is based partially on the prohibition of abuse and selfish exploitation, it is also based on “construction and sustainable development.” It is narrated that the Prophet Muhammad (upon him be peace and blessings) said, “If any Muslim plants a tree or sows a field, and a human, bird or animal eats from it, it shall be reckoned as charity from him.”¹⁰ The fourth caliph of Islam, ‘Ali ibn Abi-Talib, once said to a man who had cultivated and reclaimed abandoned land, “Partake of it gladly, so long as you are a benefactor, not a despoiler; a cultivator, not a destroyer.”¹¹ These statements all demonstrate that the aim of preservation and use of the natural environment in Islam is for the “universal good of all created beings,” not just the human being.⁷

As one of the most famous tales in the Islamic world, The Animals’ Lawsuit against Humanity brings up several issues of great contemporary relevance, especially concerning the current environmental crisis: What are our rights over other creatures and what are the limits to those rights? Do animals have any rights over us? What is the purpose of human life and how can we go about knowing that purpose without trampling on the rights of the rest of God’s creation? Within an Islamic framework, the preservation of the natural environment is known as hifz al-Ard and is considered a primary responsibility of the human being as a khalifa, or steward and caretaker placed upon the Earth by God. Surat Al-Baqarah in the Qur’an mentioned earlier relates the creation of man through a metaphorical conversation between God and the angels. God revealed:

And [mention, O Muhammad], when your Lord said to the angels, ‘Indeed, I will make upon the earth a successive authority.’ They said, ‘Will You place upon it one who causes corruption therein and sheds blood, while we declare Your praise and sanctify You?’ God said, ‘Indeed, I know that which you do not know.’¹²

And just as the Qur’an is comprised of ayat, or verses, which literally translates into English as “signs, revelations, evidence, lessons, and proofs” of the existence of God and His divine attributes, the natural environment is also thought to contain a multitude of ayat, that point to the existence and the oneness of God.⁸

The Qur’an warns man against sowing corruption on the Earth and of transgressing against the Divine Law. If man does not observe this warning and deliberately enters a state of ghafla, or heedlessness, he essentially chooses to go against his aboriginal nature of submission to God and commits injustices against his own soul, sins that he will be held accountable for on the Day of Judgment. God’s wrath is incurred as a result of man’s deliberate transgression and concealment of truth. However, God’s mercy is always greater than his wrath. In Surat Al-‘An-‘am, God states,

“And it is He who has made you successors upon the Earth and has raised some of you above others in degrees [of rank] that He may try you through what He has given you. Indeed, your Lord is swift in penalty; but indeed, He is forgiving and merciful.”¹³

This particular verse is quite striking because it expounds on the transcendence and imminence of God.

While full conceptualization of God is beyond human intellectual capacity, the Islamic tradition holds that human beings can know of God’s existence and His divine attributes through the physical world around us, which is a rahma, or mercy, unto itself. All of creation was formed to “serve the Lord of all beings by performing their ordained roles so as to best benefit each other,” thus leading to a “cosmic symbiosis” (takaful) of sorts.⁷ Moreover, the Islamic worldview stipulates that God created all things in the universe in due proportion and measure; there is wisdom, value, and purpose in all of creation. As God explains in the Qur’an,

“Verily, all things have We created by measure”¹⁴ and “We have not created the heavens and the earth and all that is between them carelessly. We have not created them but for truth.”¹⁵ “Indeed, in the creation of the heavens and earth, and the alternation of the night and the day, and the [great] ships which sail through the sea with that which benefits people, and what God has sent down from the heavens of rain, giving life thereby to the earth after its lifelessness and dispersing every [kind of] moving creature, and [His] directing of the winds and the clouds controlled between the heaven and the earth are signs for a people who use reason.”¹⁶

If man is to recognize his central purpose in life, then it becomes incumbent upon him to conserve and nurture that which allows him to reach the objective truth in the first place – the natural environment and the sentient beings with whom he interacts. These are all ayat, or signs, for “men endued with understanding.”¹⁷

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For more information on environmental protection in Islam, I highly recommend reading the IUCN (The World Conservation Union) Environmental Policy and Law Paper No. 20 and Syed Iskandar Ariffin’s “Islamic Perspectives and Malay Notions of Heritage Conservation.” If you would like to read the adapted version of The Animals’ Lawsuit Against Humanity, please click here. For a wonderful video lecture on this same topic, please consider watching Shaykh Hamza Yusuf Hanson’s “Sacred Earth: Sacred Self” here.

Notes

Nasr, xiii. “The Animals Lawsuit Against Humanity – A Modern Adaptation of an Ancient Animal Rights Tale Told Originally by a 10th Century Muslim Iraqi.” The Animals Lawsuit Against Humanity – A Modern Adaptation of an Ancient Animal Rights Tale Told Originally by a 10th Century Muslim Iraqi. Trans. Anson Laytner and Dan Bridge. Ed. Matthew Kaufmann. Fons Vitae, 2005. Web.
Qur’an, Surat Al-Baqarah (2), ayah 183-184.
Qur’an, Surat Al-Baqarah (2), ayah 63.
Qur’an, Surat Al-Baqarah (2), ayah 172.
Raouf, Mohammad A. “Of Ramadan, Our Bodies and the Environment.” Of Ramadan, Our Bodies and the Environment. Gulf News, 30 June 2014. Web. 8 June 2015.
Qur’an, Surat Al-‘Ar’āf (7), ayah 31.
Bagader, Abubakr Ahmed, Abdullatif Tawfik El-Chirazi El-Sabbagh, Mohamad As-Sayyid Al-Glayand, Mawil Yousuf Izzi-Deen Samarrai, and Othman Abd-ar-Rahman Llewellyn. Environmental Protection in Islam. 2nd ed. Vol. 20. Gland: IUCN Commission on Environmental Law, 1994. Web.
Ariffin, Syed Iskandar. “Islamic Perspectives and Malay Notions of Heritage Conservation.” Asian Heritage Management: Contexts, Concerns, and Prospects. By Kapila D. Silva and Neel Kamal. Chapagain. London: Routledge, 2013. 65+. Print.
Abu ‘l-Farak ‘Abd ar-Rahman ibn Rajab, in al-Qawa ‘id.
Hadith of sound authority, related by al-Bukhari and Muslim on the authority of Anas.
Athar related by Yahya ibn Adam al-Qurashi in Kitab al-Kharaj, on the authority of Sa’id ab-Dabbi.
Qur’an, Surat Al-Baqarah (2), ayah 30.
Qur’an, Surat Al-‘An’am (6), ayah 165.
Qur’an, Surat Al-Qamar (54), ayah 49.
Qur’an, Surat Ad-Dukhan (44), ayahs 38-39.
Qur’an, Surat Al-Baqarah (2), ayah 164.
Qur’an, Surat Ta Ha (20), ayah 54.

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Sofia Ahsanuddin is a rising senior at the Coordinated BA/MD Program and the Macaulay Honors College at Brooklyn College. A political science major and chemistry minor, Sofia intends to obtain an MD/MPH. Sofia is a Horace W. Goldsmith Scholar and a Rosen Fellow and is interested in learning more about the intersection between state surveillance, governance, health, and human rights. She hopes to specialize in global health and ophthalmology as a physician. In her spare time, Sofia enjoys reading about comparative religion, philosophy, and international affairs.

Posted in Climate Change, Education | Tagged animals, Arabic, ayat, Bani Adam, Climate Change, Earth, Environment, fable, fasting, Global Warming, God, Guest Blog, Hebrew, humanity, Ikhwan al-Safa’, Iraq, Islam, islamic law, Koran, lawsuit, Muhammad, muslim, Muslims, Promethean Man, Qur'an, Ramadan, religion, rights, sharia, Shari’ah, Sufi, Sustainability | 2 Comments

NIMBY: Wind vs. Fossil Fuels

Posted on June 9, 2015 by climatechangefork

Last week I focused on Texas. In spite of its strong inclination toward state autonomy, reluctance to implement new taxes, and its heavy dependence on fossil fuels, it is playing a vital role in the energy transition:

The state is a leader in renewable energy commercialization; it produces the most wind power in the nation. The Roscoe Wind Farm in Roscoe, Texas, is one of the world’s largest wind farms with a 781.5 megawatt (MW) capacity. The Energy Information Administration states that the state’s large agriculture and forestry industries could give Texas an enormous amount biomass for use in biofuels. The state also has the highest solar power potential for development in the nation.

Unlike the rest of the nation, most of Texas is on its own alternating current power grid, the Texas Interconnection. Texas has a deregulated electric service.

I have paid special attention to Georgetown, a relatively small town in Texas, and its commitment to convert entirely to carbon-free energy sourcing by January 2017. That’s way ahead of almost everywhere else in the world. The town intends to make that transition by replacing all usages of fossil fuels with wind and solar sources.

While Georgetown is an example of incredible progress, there are still barriers to the changeover. One of these, a long-time nemesis of this evolution, is the NIMBY (Not in My Back Yard) phenomenon. Many people worldwide have expressed their dismay at having gigantic wind farms feature prominently in their immediate field of view.

Three of my students in the Physics & Society course did a project in which they compared NIMBY attitudes directed at wind energy in the US, Germany, and China. They found the following chart in an article by Eric R.A.N. Smith and Holy Klick which reflects the opinions of Americans polled:

The factors deemed most important in the survey were the positive aspects of wind power: the turbines emit no pollution or greenhouse gases, they symbolize renewable energy, and they reduce reliance on imported energy. But those questioned also emphasized the relative perceived importance of several obstacles: wind farms are more expensive, they lower property value, are ugly, noisy and they kill birds.

All of these questions need references, though – what are these numbers in comparison to? Meanwhile, I’d like to focus on the complaint that wind power generators are ugly. This was a leading concern which caused significant delay in the construction of wind farms in a multitude of locations. Unsurprisingly, if you have an ocean view property and somebody proposes to put a wind farm in the ocean directly in front of your window, you might object.

But consider the two facilities below:

The first photograph is taken from the New York Times article, “Wind Power Is Poised to Spread to All States”:

All 50 states could become wind energy producers, according to an Energy Department report released Tuesday, once the next generation of larger, taller turbines in development hits the market.

The bigger machines — reaching as high as 460 feet — could eventually make faster winds at higher altitudes an economical source of electricity, an important part of reaching the nation’s goals in fighting global warming, said Ernest Moniz, the secretary of energy.

The second photograph is from a quick Google image search for a fossil fuel power plant.

Which view would you prefer? One of them has to provide you with the energy that you need.

Posted in Climate Change | Tagged Adaptation, China, Clean Energy, Climate Change, Democratization, Economics, EIA, electrical power, Electricity, Emissions, Energy, energy transition, Environment, Fossil Fuels, Georgetown, Germany, Global Warming, greenhouse gas, Mitigation, NIMBY, Pollution, Power, Power Plants, public opinion, Renewable, Roscoe Wind Farm, Solar Energy, stuttering energy transition, Sustainability, Technology, Texas, Texas Interconnection, Transition, turbine, US, Wind, wind farm | 8 Comments

Texas

Posted on June 2, 2015 by climatechangefork

Carbon taxation in any form will probably never make it in Texas. It’s a red state that likes its independence, especially when a Democrat presides in Washington. Historically, its residents have shared an intense hatred of regulations and taxes. To add to that, its economy is heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Wikipedia has a rather detailed summary of the state’s relationship with fossil fuels and emissions:

Texas is the second most populous (after California) and the second largest of the 50 U.S. states (after Alaska) in the United States of America.

Texas emits the most greenhouse gases in the U.S. The state emits nearly 1.5 trillion pounds (680 billion kg) of carbon dioxide annually. As an independent nation, Texas would rank as the world’s seventh-largest producer of greenhouse gases. Causes of the state’s vast greenhouse gas emissions include the state’s large number of coal power plants and the state’s refining and manufacturing industries. In 2010, there were 2,553 “emission events” which poured 44.6 million pounds of contaminants into the Texas sky.

According to the Energy Information Administration, Texans consume, on average, the fifth most energy in the nation per capita and as a whole, following behind Wyoming, Alaska, Louisiana, North Dakota, and Iowa.

Ever since the discovery of oil at Spindletop, energy has been a dominant force politically and economically within the state. If Texas were its own country it would be the sixth largest oil producer in the world.

Texas has known petroleum deposits of about 5 billion barrels (790,000,000 m³), which makes up about one-fourth of the known U.S. reserves. The state’s refineries can process 4.6 million barrels (730,000 m³) of oil a day. The Baytown Refinery in the Houston area is the largest refinery in America. Texas also leads in natural gas production, producing one-fourth of the nation’s supply. Several petroleum companies are based in Texas such as: Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, Conoco-Phillips, Exxon-Mobil, Halliburton, Marathon Oil, Tesoro, and Valero, Western Refining.

At the same time, there is a growing market for renewables:

The state is a leader in renewable energy commercialization; it produces the most wind power in the nation. The Roscoe Wind Farm in Roscoe, Texas, is one of the world’s largest wind farms with a 781.5 megawatt (MW) capacity. The Energy Information Administration states that the state’s large agriculture and forestry industries could give Texas an enormous amount biomass for use in biofuels. The state also has the highest solar power potential for development in the nation.

Unlike the rest of the nation, most of Texas is on its own alternating current power grid, the Texas Interconnection. Texas has a deregulated electric service.

Georgetown, TX (see May 19, 2015 blog) stood out because it announced that “by January 2017, all electricity within the city’s service area will come from wind and solar power.” The decision was especially notable because it was based purely on economic considerations. The contractual agreements to implement the transition are now in full force, but the impact of the recent sharp drop on the price of fossil fuels on the transition has yet to be evaluated.

It turns out that the moves toward energy transition in Texas go way beyond small towns such as Georgetown. The New York Times reported recently about the recent proliferation of wind power in Texas:

But turning wind into electricity is one thing; moving the energy to a profitable market is another. For years, the wind industry has been hampered by such a severe lack of transmission lines that when the wind is strong, a local power surplus forces some machines to be shut down.

Now, Texas is out to change that by conducting a vast experiment that might hold lessons for the rest of the United States. This year, a sprawling network of new high-voltage power lines was completed, tying the panhandle area and West Texas to the millions of customers around Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin and Houston.

By any standard, the scale is enormous. Anywhere else, a big transmission project is a few hundred miles long and costs a few hundred million dollars; this is a network of 3,600 miles built at a cost of $7 billion, which is more money than the whole country has spent on transmission in some recent years. It comes to about $300 per person served by the Texas grid.

Nationally, transmission infrastructure is built only when circumstances demand it; in Texas, however, lawmakers have ordered an “if-you-build-it, they-will-come” approach.

And it is working. “We’ve built it and they’re marching this way,” said Warren Lasher, the director of system planning at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the grid operator, citing plans for new wind farms.

Encouraged by the new power lines and by federal tax credits that were available only to projects that broke ground by the end of last year, developers had started work on 7,000 megawatts of capacity by the end of 2013.

Let’s look back at the Yale survey of public attitude to climate change (April 21, 2015 blog). On the issue of whether global warming is happening, 63% of adult Texans agree, exactly the same percentage as the national response. On the key question of whether it is mostly caused by human activity, 49% of Texans agree, 1% more than the national average.

Congressional district distribution of estimated % of adults who think global warming is mostly caused by humans

The map above shows the distribution of congressional districts’ answers to the latter question. Areas marked in blue indicate below 50% agreement while those in yellow indicate above 50%. Texas is more or less divided into two parts, with more than half of those in the north answering to the affirmative and a similar number in the south answering negatively, but both sections sort of hug the 50% divide – the yellow is around 55% and the blue is above 40%. I talked briefly about this in the April 21st blog; these distributions are not characteristics of a sharply polarized public. That means that if provided with good solutions that don’t include taxation or regulation (especially if they financially benefit the community), the voters could be convinced to take positive action.

Posted in Climate Change | Tagged Adaptation, Baytown refinery, Carbon Tax, Clean Energy, Climate Change, Climate Change Denial, Climate Change Deniers, Climate Skeptics, deregulated, Economics, EIA, electrical power, Electricity, Emissions, Energy, Energy Storage, Environment, federal tax credits, Fossil Fuels, Georgetown, Global Warming, greenhouse gas, high voltage, Power, power lines, Power Plants, Science, Solar Energy, Spindletop, Sustainability, Tax, Technology, Texas, Texas Interconnection, transmission | Leave a comment

Guest Blog by Denis Ladyzhensky: My 4 Hours of the 4 Day Forum on Sustainable Energy 4 All

Posted on May 26, 2015 by climatechangefork

I got involved in the second annual SE4All (Sustainable Energy For All) forum through an email from Brooklyn College’s Magner Center. The United Nations staff needed interns for the event so they asked for volunteers. Of course I agreed because it would fit in perfectly with my Brooklyn College class this semester which emphasized climate change education and sustainability for our planet – both today and in the future. Fortunately, I was selected to attend the last day of the forum on May 21, 2015 so I was able to spend four hours there as an observer. When I told Professor Micha Tomkiewicz about the experience, he suggested I write another guest blog.

The only way to describe the SE4All forum’s overall atmosphere is exhilarating. Within my four hours there I heard speeches from ministers representing over 30 nations from around the world. The excitement I felt at hearing one energy leader after another rise to the podium and describe his country’s efforts to improve sustainability is indescribable. It was basically seeing the start of tangible unity on a shared issue of global proportions. What I honestly expected was to see standing room only in the general assembly room of the UN. Unfortunately there were loads and loads of empty seats, but I’m sure that in the near future that particular problem will disappear.

I believe the idea of the forum was to bring together a tremendous diversity of world leaders representing every kind of nation on earth together under a shared roof. While there they would have an opportunity to share their views for what has to be done to secure sustainable energy for everyone. Sustainable energy for everyone means providing over one billion people with electricity that they don’t have today. It also means getting it to them in a way that doesn’t harm the environment. What the international community is thankfully very cognizant of is that poverty and access to energy go together. As the representative from Swaziland so cleverly put it, “poverty cannot be addressed without addressing energy poverty.” So to lift people out of poverty, there must be a way to bring people affordable and reliable energy. To do this sustainably, there must be a major consideration for environmental impact. Each representative brought to the podium a unique and interesting insight which affected their home countries but also had implications for the entire world.

There were a number of representatives from the Pacific Island states like Kiribati, Nauru and the Marshall Islands. They share a number of similar problems; because they don’t have any native fossil fuels, they have to import enough to satisfy their domestic needs, meaning that they each spend about ¼ of their GDP on fossil fuels. This is a tremendous financial burden on all of them. What they desperately need is to figure out a renewable energy solution for their energy needs. Nauru is the smallest of these and the one most in need of major help. At a population of about 10,000 it considers itself to be nearly on the brink of disaster. The island doesn’t have a real port; the nation relies on importing expensive fossil fuels and has absolutely no alternative way to generate electricity. Kiribati, meanwhile, is about 10x larger population-wise and is comprised of low-lying islands, making them extremely sensitive to rising water levels. The Maldives, which are a group of islands in the Arabian Sea, also have to rely on importing fossil fuels at the expense of ¼ of their GDP. This for them is completely unsustainable and they are determined to take advantage of the vast potential for solar energy on their islands to help supply their demands for electricity.

Barbados and New Zealand proved to have a much brighter story to tell. Barbados is proud to have reduced CO₂ emissions while raising its economic output. It also plans on getting 50% of its energy from renewable sources by 2020. Barbados, which is the wealthiest and most developed country in the eastern Caribbean, has called on all countries to reduce their respective carbon emissions for the sake of preserving our world. New Zealand is a group of Polynesian islands which produces 70% of its electricity from renewable sources. The country is growing at a dynamic rate, transforming itself into a competitive, industrialized global economy.

Asia as a whole had a number of attending nations who had impressive near-term goals for sustainable energy. Since there are 387 million people – more than the population of the U.S.A. – without electrical power in Asia Pacific, the issue is extremely pressing. Cambodia, one of the poorest countries in the world, plans to provide electricity to 70% of households by 2025 using mostly hydropower. Indonesia, a country which is growing constantly, is planning on providing electricity for all of its inhabitants. It wants to establish a clear policy framework for energy production and is encouraging technological innovations in renewable energy.

Representing Africa was a large assortment of developing and emerging nations – Congo, Angola, Kenya, Tanzania, Swaziland, Sudan, Burkina Faso and Sierra Leone. They span a wide spectrum of sustainable energy needs and wants. What they all seem to agree upon is the need to lower the cost of electricity and to provide access to energy for the hundreds of millions of people who don’t have electric power on the continent. A number of countries have completed or are completing renewable energy projects. Kenya has geothermal plants, hydropower and liquefied natural gas projects. The Congo, an emerging economy, will give electric power access to 42% of its citizens by 2025 at a personal cost of 2.5 billion dollars. Angola plans to be using hydropower by 2024 in order to protect its environment and provide renewable energy to its people. Burkina Faso, one of the poorest countries in Africa, is working on reducing its people’s dependence on biomass for fuel – instead it wants to provide 50% of its energy needs with solar sources by 2030. Tanzania, Sierra Leone and Sudan are all in need of sustainable energy expertise and resources. Sudan, for example, is far behind in renewable energy, having spent many years without transfers of knowledge in its lands. To give an idea of the diverse energy needs on the continent, bear in mind that Rwanda believes that energy is important for economic growth and sees its rich sources of biomass for energy as a major asset. Ultimately the diversity of Africa is very great but perhaps the minister for Sierra Leone captured it best when he pointed out that, “electricity in Africa averages about $1/kWh; what we need to do is turn talk into kWh.” (In NYC we pay between $.06-.12/kWh).

Some of the most inspiring and fascinating delegations came out of the Middle East – Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Turkey all had fascinating things to say and plenty of suggestions. Bahrain and the UAE are both extremely rich in fossil fuels but they both had lots of good things to say about alternative energy. Bahrain wants to establish a sustainable energy initiative and to implement action plans to develop a “high-level road map.” As of now, the country has made great use of its wealth in solar energy, using rooftops and its own personal “solar-trees.” Bahrain also wants to discourage use of fossil fuels by doubling the price of natural gas by 2020. The UAE, which prior to discovery of oil 30 years ago was an impoverished nation, today has one of the highest standards of living in the world. Even so, it advocated for renewable energy, claiming that renewables offer cost savings and are seeing improvements in efficiency. The UAE has also banned incandescent light bulbs and built wind farms. Azerbaijan, a high economic growth country, is putting significant resources into renewable energy. It is working on a city that will only use renewable energy – primarily sun, water and wind to generate electricity. Kazakhstan, an extremely large emerging nation, is working to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and move to a greener economy. It wants to reduce CO₂ emissions and improve energy efficiencies for all of its people. The country invited everyone to join it at the Astana Expo in 2017 to continue working on sustainable energy. Turkey, which is a G20 partner, wants to provide access to affordable, reliable energy for everyone. It is making progress in certain parts of Africa but is experiencing some problems in sub-Saharan Africa. Israel, which has a technologically advanced economy, is also working and willing to partner with anyone to come up with improvements on sustainable energy. It produced solar projects in the Negev which have cut hundreds of thousands of tons of CO₂ emissions – an amount equal to the effect of planting half a million trees.

From Europe and the Americas there were representatives from the United Kingdom, Italy, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Romania, Brazil and Canada. All of the countries had projects they were actively pursuing. Romania was pursing nuclear energy as a renewable source and spoke about preserving the world for future generations. Brazil affirmed that now is the time for solar power. Italy proudly declared it is the first country of its size to source 11% of its energy from solar power. It is also investing in energy projects in Africa, South America, and Asia. Switzerland spoke about fossil fuel subsidies; according to the Swiss, those subsidies only benefit the rich and it’s time to get rid of them, especially now that oil prices are low. The United Kingdom wants access to clean energy to be mandatory by 2030. It passed the 2014 gender equality act and now wants to eliminate energy barriers for women. The UK has called this the “decade of sustainable energy for all” and is providing capital resources for 3 African countries. Canada said that it takes s of its energy from renewable sources. It’s adapting policy for climate change and is working on renewable energy and energy efficiency.

After the individual speeches finished there was a panel discussion on sustainable energy. The panel was comprised of representatives from the Philippines, Fiji and the World Bank. The representative from the Philippines said that renewable energy tends to be high risk and low return, and the energy policy in the Philippines is incoherent. One of the problems, she emphasized, was that there is a wider than necessary umbrella for what constitutes “green energy,” i.e. it includes nuclear energy, so policy regarding it is tough to pin down. She also stressed the importance of ownership and concluded that for this to work, the whole world must agree to take action. The representative from Fiji believed that money can fix the sustainable energy problem, but questioned how to attract such investments. He believed that financing emerging economies is a secure venture because they are determined to pay their debts. He also underscored that friends (and allies) should help each other and that risk is acceptable in these cases.

The representative of the World Bank looked into the questions of current trends and existing gaps in access. She also informed us that internationally, we are not meeting our sustainable energy and emissions goals. Cooking is the most worrisome activity, because too many people are cooking with biomass, so the biggest gains have come in electrifying villages, particularly in India. She told us that Africa is doing a good job, energy-wise of keeping up with population growth, its countries need to start expecting increased demand. In total, the energy saved in the world from 2012-today is equal to the amount of energy that Brazil uses per annum. She concluded that while we’ve done good work in upgrading our electricity generation systems, we have done almost nothing to improve our transportation and heating. An important note regarding the last point is that the shift to renewable energy is much smaller in transportation and heating, but there is not sufficient funding for the necessary projects, “to be successful we would need to triple our current funds.”

As incredible and impactful as this session of the UN SE4All was, it was only 4 hours out of a 4 day event. The event attracted speakers from almost every nation on earth and brought leaders together to unify them under the banner of climate change response and our planet’s shared welfare. It was unforgettable seeing so many countries committed to getting energy to their people, but it was also so inspiring to know that they only want to do it in a renewable, sustainable way. The acute awareness of climate change was expressed loudly and clearly as leaders and ministers stood up one after another pledging an interest in sustainable and renewable energy for their nation’s future. Within my lifetime billions of people are going to have electricity and electrical appliances that they have never had before. Many of them require tremendous amounts of energy to operate. Knowing that this energy has to be supplied without leaving a carbon footprint on the Earth is positive reassurance that we are advancing and modernizing in a responsible way for everyone. As so many of the speakers articulated so well, climate change is indisputable and renewable energy is the only energy for the future.

Denis Ladyzhensky is a Brooklyn College Undergraduate student graduating with a B.A. in Physics. He spent five years studying Talmudic law and the Hebrew Bible in Jerusalem. He hopes to get a professional degree in electrical engineering and to one day work on projects that improve life for everyone.

Posted in Climate Change | Tagged Adaptation, Africa, America, Angola, Asia Pacific, Bahrain, Barbados, Biofuel, biomass, Brazil, Brooklyn College, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Canada, Caribbean, Clean Energy, Climate Change, CO2, Conference, Congo, Economic Growth, Economics, Economy, Education, electrical power, Electricity, Emissions, Energy, Energy Storage, Environment, Europe, Expo 2017, Fiji, Fossil Fuels, GDP, Global Population, Global Warming, green energy, greenhouse gas, Guest Blog, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Kasakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Magner Center, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Mitigation, Nauru, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nuclear, Pacific Island, Philippines, Population, Poverty, Power, Power Plants, Romania, Science, SE4All, Sierra Leone, Solar, Solar Cells, Solar Energy, Sudan, Sustainability, Swaziland, Switzerland, Tanzania, Technology, Turkey, UAE, UK, UN, United Nations, US, Wind, World, World Bank, World Population | Leave a comment

Back to the United States: Smaller Scope, Bigger Hope?

Posted on May 19, 2015 by climatechangefork

Lately I have been looking at Canada’s progress in the stuttering energy transition, however the United States might be a better focal point for assessing the impact that bottom-up policies (from smaller regions below the level of sovereign states) can have on the global energy transition to a more sustainable mix of sources. The IPAT identity might be a good place to start with such scenario building. Searching CCF for the term IPAT yields nearly a quarter of the blogs; clearly I think it is incredibly important. I discussed it in some detail in the November 26, 2012 post:

There is a useful identity that correlates the environmental impacts (greenhouse gases, in Governor’s Romney statement) with the other indicators. The equation is known as the IPAT equation (or I=PAT), which stands for Impact Population Affluence Technology. The equation was proposed independently by two research teams; one consists of Paul R. Ehrlich and John Holdren (now President Obama’s Science Adviser), while the other is led by Barry Commoner (P.R. Ehrlich and J.P. Holdren; Bulletin of Atmospheric Science 28:16 (1972). B. Commoner; Bulletin of Atmospheric Science 28:42 (1972).)

The identity takes the following form:

Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology

Almost all of the future scenarios for climate change make separate estimates of the indicators in this equation. The difference factor of 15 in GDP/Person (measure of affluence), between the average Chinese and average American makes it clear that the Chinese and the rest of the developing world will do everything they can to try to “even the score” with the developed world. The global challenge is how to do this while at the same time minimizing the environmental impact.

Up until now, I have mainly confined the discussion about IPAT and scenario building to the efforts and actions of sovereign states, but I’d like to extend that to sub-sovereign levels – applying it not only to individual US states, but even further down to major global cities. I did a similar exercise a few years ago with two of my students (See “Intensive and Extensive Parametrization of Energy Use and Income in US States and in Global Urban Environments” by Yevgeniy Ostrovskiy, Michael Cheng and Micha Tomkiewicz; The International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses, Volume 4, Issue 4, pp.97-109.)

There are important differences in the identity between sovereign states and sub-sovereign states. One can get an idea of some of these differences by reading the original publication. Generally, the identity holds true for both levels of governments. But does my analysis comparing British Columbia and Alberta following the former’s implementation of a carbon tax hold water when we move out of Canada?

In the last few blogs we saw one important sign that the carbon tax was effective in moving British Columbia away from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources: relative to the rest of Canada, BC reduced its use of fossil fuels in its energy mix. This is an important indicator, but is it the only one that is significant?

To explore that, we need to expand the Technology term in the IPAT identity:

Technology = (Energy/Affluence) x (Fossil/Energy) x (Carbon Dioxide/Fossil)

The first term (Energy/Affluence) is the energy intensity, or how much energy we need to produce a unit of affluence – as measured by GDP, national, or state income.

The second term (Fossil/Energy) measures the fraction of the energy needs that are met by fossil fuels.

The third term (Carbon Dioxide/Fossil) measures the type of fossil fuel being used. Coal emits more than twice the amount of carbon dioxide as natural gas does to produce the same amount of energy.

For British Columbia we saw that after the carbon tax, the fraction of energy sourced from fossil fuels was reduced, compared to the rest of Canada. However, we did not see direct impacts on either the amount of energy used to produce a given amount of affluence or the carbon emissions levels.

Using the same carbon pricing global map from previous blogs (May 5, 2015), let’s move our attention back to the United States. California and the RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative), which includes the East Coast states of Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont, have been notably active in creating greenhouse gas regulations. Texas and Hawaii are not among this list, but the two states have also featured prominently in recent news about the issue.

This brings me back to last year’s TV series “Years of Living Dangerously” (April 22, 2014 blog ). Don Cheadle, who narrated the first episode, showed the different local responses to the droughts in Texas and California. In California, the prevailing opinion seemed to be that climate change was an important contributing cause, while in Texas many believed that the droughts were an act of God. Cheadle went to Texas to interview Katherine Hayhoe, an atmospheric scientist and devout evangelist. She joined the evangelists in their prayers but also explained to them that there is no contradiction between believing in God and believing in science (The Pope is now strongly presenting the same view). Through her efforts, much of the audience started to believe that not only does anthropogenic climate change have something to do with the droughts, but there are steps we (and they) can take to mitigate it. That said, just as there is much more to Texas than religious beliefs, there is much more to climate change than being an important cause of regional droughts.

One anecdotal example from Texas reflects the complexity of the transition and some of the driving forces that are completely absent from the IPAT identity – the events taking place in Georgetown, a small town in Texas (50,000 people):

In many Texas cities the electricity market is deregulated, meaning that customers choose from a dizzying variety of providers and plans. In Houston, for example, there are more than 70 plans that offer energy from entirely renewable sources.

That makes it easy to switch, so in a dynamic marketplace, providers tend to focus on the immediate future. This discourages the creation of renewable energy facilities, which require long-term investment to be viable. But in Georgetown, the city utility company has a monopoly.

When its staff examined their options last year, they discovered something that seemed remarkable, especially in Texas: renewable energy was cheaper than non-renewable. And so last month city officials finalised a deal with SunEdison, a giant multinational solar energy company. It means that by January 2017, all electricity within the city’s service area will come from wind and solar power.

In 2014, the city signed a 20-year agreement with EDF for wind power from a forthcoming project near Amarillo. Taking the renewable elements up to 100%, SunEdison will build plants in west Texas that will provide Georgetown with 150 megawatts of solar power in a deal running from 2016 or 2017 to 2041. With consistent and reliable production the goal, the combination takes into account that wind farms generate most of their energy in the evenings, after the sun has set.

Even on a sub-sovereign level the world is far from being homogeneous and many localities are now experimenting with major changes. Interestingly, these experiments didn’t end in 2014 when the price of oil dropped globally by more than 50%. In fact, prices don’t seem to be the dominant driving force behind the transition; we will continue to explore some of other dominant forces as they take shape during this important period, but suffice it to say that some of these smaller trials could well become great models for the rest of the world.

Posted in Climate Change | Tagged Adaptation, Affluence, Alberta, British Columbia, California, Canada, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, carbon pricing, Carbon Tax, Clean Energy, Climate Change, Democratization, Drought, Economics, electrical power, Electricity, Emissions, Energy, Energy Storage, Environment, Fossil Fuels, GDP, Global Warming, greenhouse gas, Hawaii, IPAT, Mitigation, Nuclear, Population, Power, Power Plants, RGGI, Science, Solar Energy, Sustainability, Technology, Texas, United States, US, Years of Living Dangerously | 1 Comment

British Columbia and the Stuttering Transition

Posted on May 12, 2015 by climatechangefork

Last week I focused on various localities worldwide that are taking steps to limit the use of fossil fuels through carbon pricing – either in the form of Emission Trading Systems (ETS), also known as cap and trade, or by directly taxing carbon. Carbon pricing is often a leading indicator of governments’ commitments to transitioning toward the prominent use of sustainable energy sources. Such intentions were recently put to severe testing when the price of oil and other fossils dropped by more than 50% in a very short time (it is now in an increasing trend again), while the prices of alternative energy sources stayed largely unchanged.

As I mentioned, the University of British Columbia’s Prof. Kathryn Harrison, in detailing the reasons why Canada finds itself at the bottom of the performance among the 10 largest CO₂ emitters, referred to Canada as the “Fossil of the Day.” Following Prof. Harrison’s speech, a slew of reports at the Vancouver conference described British Columbia’s efforts to change that. The essence of these reports was that in spite of the country’s lag, BC is actually doing rather well. In what seems to be a battle between British Columbia and Alberta, the latter appears to be winning. Looks can be deceiving, though.

(A note to the reader: In case you’re wondering why I’m bringing Alberta into a post about British Columbia, it’s helpful to know that while the two provinces border each other, Alberta is Canada’s largest producer of oil and gas. As you can imagine, there has been a lot of back and forth about what to do with gas, oil, sustainability and the future, and it’s become quite a political issue. For instance, one large point in Alberta’s recent election was whether it was a priority to “stop Alberta’s heavy reliance on fluctuating oil prices for its revenue.”)

Here is how Wikipedia describes the “average” citizen of Alberta:

Alberta’s per capita GDP in 2007 was by far the highest of any province in Canada at C$74,825 (approx. US$75,000). In 2006 Alberta’s per capita GDP was higher than all US states, and one of the highest figures in the world. Alberta’s per capita GDP in 2007 was 61% higher than the Canadian average of C$46,441 and more than twice that of all the Maritime provinces. In 2006, the deviation from the national average was the largest for any province in Canadian history.

All of that wealth was oil driven. Not surprisingly, citizens of Alberta cited a sharp drop in revenue from fossil fuels for the realization that the economy had to diversify. We will continue to keep an eye on the developments in the new government’s anticipated policy changes in Alberta.

Here are the data that compare between the provinces:

As we can see in the table above, the difference between Alberta and British Columbia in per capita emissions is a factor of 5. This marks Alberta as the “fossil” in Canada – both in terms of its commitment to antiquated technology and its continued usage of said dirty fuels.

The main reason that British Columbia is ranked so high in its shift to sustainable energy sources is that it introduced a carbon tax in 2008. The tax started at a relatively low level of C$10/ton. This was intentional, as the first 5 years were intended to be a learning experience for the anticipated impacts. The plan was that the tax would gradually be raised to C$30/ton in 2012 and stay frozen at that price until 2018. The carbon tax continues to enjoy the support of the majority of the province’s citizens and the changes in the rate remain on schedule. Since the introduction of the tax, the BC economy has grown just as fast as that of the rest of Canada, while petroleum use per person is decreasing. The five years of gradual transition are already changing behavior.

Figure 1 shows petroleum sales in British Columbia as compared with the rest of Canada, before and after the introduction of the carbon tax.

Figure 1 – Comparative sale of petroleum fuels after introduction of the carbon tax.

Sustainable energy (“Cleantech”) is the fastest growing energy sector. The tax was designed to be revenue neutral, such that the revenue would contribute to expenses usually covered by other taxes, thereby lowering tax burdens in other areas. Many regard BC’s carbon tax structure as the best designed in the world. But officials and researchers at the conference admitted that the carbon tax’s effects on shifting the weight of other taxes are still poorly understood.

The province has stated its objective is greenhouse gas reduction (2010 reference) by 80% by 2050.

Figure 2 shows how British Columbia is actually doing.

Greenhouse gas emission and energy use, two extensive parameters that strongly depend on population and economic development, peaked around the beginning of the century and have been on a mild decreasing pattern since. Over the “learning” period of the carbon tax (2008 – 2012) they remained approximately constant. The greenhouse gas emission per unit of energy demand is an intensive parameter that depends primarily on the mixture of energy that is being used. This parameter remained approximately constant from 1990. There is no indication from this data that the energy mix that BC is using changed because of the implementation of the carbon tax. The two other intensive parameters, emission per capita and emission per unit of GDP show decrease in various rates from about 2000, well before the introduction of the carbon tax.

Figure 3 shows the trends in carbon emission per capita of some of the other major global emitters. The two global emitters that can be compared to Canada – the United States (which has no carbon pricing) and the European Union (whose carbon pricing is still a work in progress) – show similar trends to that of British Columbia.

As the data below show, the use of carbon pricing to help mitigate climate change by influencing our use of different sources of energy is still a work in progress.

GHG Emission Indicators 1990-2012 British Columbia Figure 2 – Greenhouse gas emission and energy use in British Columbia

Figure 3 – Carbon dioxide emission per capita of major global emitters.

Posted in Climate Change | Tagged Adaptation, Alberta, BC, British Columbia, Canada, Cap and Trade, carbon dioxide, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, carbon pricing, Carbon Tax, Clean Energy, Cleantech, Climate Change, CO2 emissions, Conference, Economics, Education, electrical power, Electricity, Emissions, Energy, Energy Storage, energy transition, Environment, ETS, EU, Fossil Fuels, GDP, global energy transition, Global Warming, greenhouse gas, Kathryn Harrison, Mitigation, Physics, Power, Power Plants, Science, Solar Energy, stuttering energy transition, Sustainability, Technology, Temperature, temperature rise, US, Vancouver | 1 Comment

Back to the Stuttering Transition – One Scale Down from Sovereign States: British Columbia

Posted on May 5, 2015 by climatechangefork

One of the lessons that I learned at the Vancouver conference was to start thinking a bit smaller when talking and writing about the global energy transition. From the beginning, I have referred to this as a stuttering energy transition because of all the obstacles that such a changeover encounters. The transition has to be global; the current trends of energy use affect us all, but the world doesn’t operate globally in a way that policy can be universally enforced. Even our global institutions such as the UN can only enforce behavior through its sovereign member states.

The energy transition, like all such evolutions, involves winners and losers. The clear winners (or so we hope) are future generations, but they don’t have a vote on how we conduct our business. The clear losers are individuals and corporations that have financial stakes in the present energy mix and are going to lose money in the process. In our current system of governance these individuals and corporations have a lot of power to influence governments in sovereign states. Developing countries, which often rely on abundant, low cost fossil fuels as they strive to close the gap between themselves and more developed nations seem similarly likely to lose out. One stumbling block has been that these developing countries which so desire – and deserve – accelerated progress have yet to find proof that alternative fuels can help them achieve that goal. So the global transition is bound to stumble. However, local governments under large sovereign states are starting to develop pressures that might serve as experimental field tests for the broader adaptation of the transition.

A good indicator of local governments’ mitigation efforts against anthropogenic climate change is their steps meant to limit the use of fossil fuels. The most visible part of such attempts is the practice of putting a price on carbon – one form of this is a carbon tax. A carbon tax aims to encourage users to use alternative energy sources by making fossil fuels more expensive. Ideally, these alternative sources emit less carbon, use energy more efficiently and/or are completely non carbon-based (e.g. solar, wind, hydroelectric and biofuel). This method of mitigation changes market conditions in favor of decrease in carbon emissions but it doesn’t put a ceiling on how much carbon can be emitted in total.

The second method is based on emissions trading (ETS – Emission Trading Systems) or as it is sometimes called, cap and trade. In this system, the authorities set a ceiling for emissions and distribute certificates to corporations and individuals that give them the right to emit certain levels of carbon. These certificates become tradable, so organizations that need to emit more buy certificates from those that plan to emit less. Again, the market determines the price of the certificates. Each method has its own distinct advantages and disadvantages, but implementation of either one indicates serious efforts to confront anthropogenic climate change through limits on carbon emissions. Figure 1 shows the distribution of the global efforts in carbon pricing. The progress of some big sovereign states is obvious, but smaller local governments are important players too. Among the active local governments are many states in federal systems, including most of the Canadian states, all of the states on North America’s West Coast, and the RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) on the East Coast of the US, which includes the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

The Vancouver conference gave me an excellent view of British Columbia’s efforts. The map also shows some important megacities (cities with greater than 10 million inhabitants) such as Tokyo and many cities in China.

carbon-pricing-map-900x476-c Figure 1 – Carbon pricing around the world

In a previous blog (March 25, 2015) I focused on the 10 largest carbon emitting countries when I talked about 2014’s milestone of reaching a global flat carbon emission in spite of the 3% GDP increase. I am repasting the table, Figure 2, which summarizes the results. In this compilation Canada ranked at the bottom, while it scored 58^th on the overall list. The United States is not doing much better, it is ranked 5^th in this grouping and 43^rd in the overall list.

Canada’s bad performance was not ignored at the Vancouver conference. The second plenary speaker was Kathryn Harrison, a professor of Political Science in the University of British Columbia. She referred to Canada’s performance as deserving of the “Fossil of the Day” award. She also mentioned that Canada was the only country to ratify the Kyoto protocol but then withdraw its involvement when the government changed to a new administration, even as its carbon emission continues to rise.

Figure 2 – Key Data for the 10 largest CO₂ emitters (see March 25, 2015 blog for details)

Following her talk came a slew of reports about the situation in British Columbia.

British Columbia is already experiencing two immense impacts, both of which have been largely attributed to climate change: major deglaciation and the continuous spread of the mountain pine bark beetle – an insect that destroys the beautiful forests that span the territory. With the loss of these forests comes the corresponding decline of the livelihood that is associated with the lumber industry and tourism.

The deglaciation is already visible. We saw it on top of Mount Grouse (April 14, 2015 blog) – usually in mid-April there is an expected 12ft of snow. As we could see in the photograph, this year it was almost free of snow at that time. Computer simulations predict that both the Rocky Mountain and Pacific Coast ranges will be equally snow free as we approach the end of the century, a result that seems almost independent of the emission scenario we follow. The damage is certainly not limited to aesthetics or even the economics tied to the destruction of recreational ski slopes; it is catastrophic in terms of the fresh water management of the province.

Meanwhile, with the temperature rising throughout the region, the beetle now finds the adjusted environment comfortable year-round. As they adapt to the climate change, the beetles feed on increasingly wide swaths of forest. Once those are destroyed, they simply move on to the next patch.

In western North America, the current outbreak of the mountain pine beetle and its microbial associates has destroyed wide areas of lodgepole pine forest, including more than 16 million of the 55 million hectares of forest in British Columbia. The current outbreak in the Rocky Mountain National Park began in 1996 and has caused the destruction of millions of acres of ponderosa and lodgepole pine trees. According to an annual assessment by the state’s forest service, 264,000 acres of trees in Colorado were infested by the mountain pine beetle at the beginning of 2013. This was much smaller than the 1.15 million acres that were affected in 2008 because the beetle has already killed off most of the vulnerable trees (Ward).

For western Canada, these are not computer simulations, these are imminent threats that must be fought now. Some of the steps that they are taking are innovative enough to be used as examples for the rest of the world. More on that next week.

Posted in Climate Change | Tagged Adaptation, British Columbia, Canada, Cap and Trade, carbon dioxide, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, carbon pricing, Carbon Tax, China, Clean Energy, Climate Change, CO2 emissions, Conference, Economics, Education, electrical power, Electricity, Emissions, Energy, Energy Storage, energy transition, Environment, ETS, Fossil Fuels, GDP, global energy transition, Global Population, Global Temperature, Global Warming, greenhouse gas, India, Kathryn Harrison, Kyoto Protocol, Mitigation, mountain pine beetle, Nuclear, Pacific Coast, Physics, Power, Power Plants, RGGI, Rocky Mountain Range, Rocky Mountains, Science, Solar Energy, stuttering energy transition, Sustainability, Technology, Temperature, temperature rise, US, Vancouver | 4 Comments

Guest Blog by Denis Ladyzhensky: Blessings and Climate Change

Posted on April 28, 2015 by climatechangefork

As I mentioned in last week’s blog, April has been a very busy month for me. One of the events I attended was a celebration of my liberation – and that of many others – from Bergen-Belsen and the nightmares of the Holocaust, by soldiers from the American Army’s 30^th Division. The meeting was in Nashville, Tennessee. Thirteen of the liberating soldiers showed up (with an average age of 92), as did three thankful and considerably younger survivors. The addition of second and third generation relatives of liberators and survivors that were no longer with us brought the total to around 60. The survivors were all Jewish, but none of the liberators were. During the closing banquet, one of the veterans read a short Christian religious blessing; I was in charge of delivering the Jewish one. I decided to give two short blessings: one for the food and one commemorating the dead – both soldiers and victims. I am not a religious guy so I had to prepare. In my preparation I ran into some background of the Jewish food blessing, which essentially says that since all of the world’s resources belong to God, we must say a blessing and get God’s permission when we eat. My immediate thought was that if this is the case, every activity that we conduct using world’s resources merits the same treatment. More than that, the religious authorities that construct the prayer books need to learn the consequences of giving permission to use the physical environment. My second thought was that I am certainly not an expert on this issue, and should approach somebody a bit more qualified.

Fortunately, Denis Ladyzhensky is a student in our Physics Department and is taking my course on Physics and Society. He is also an orthodox Jew. I approached him with my thoughts and asked him to write a guest blog on the topic. Here is the result.

What are blessings in Judaism? What purpose do they serve? How can we apply their wisdom to extracting and using fossil fuels from the earth?

Blessings appear in biblical scripture Deuteronomy 8:10, where it states, “you will eat and you will be satisfied and you will bless the Lord, your God for the land that is good that He gave to you.”

And scripture continues:

…be careful for yourself lest you forget the Lord, your God by not observing his commandments, his ordinances, and his decrees, which I command you today; lest you eat and you are satisfied, and houses that are good you build and you live and your cattle and your flocks increase, and silver and gold increase for you, and everything that is yours increase and haughty will your heart be and you will forget the Lord, your God who took you out of the land of Egypt from the house of slavery. Who leads you through the wilderness that is great and awesome and with snake, fiery serpent, and scorpion, and thirst where there was no water—who brings forth for you water from the rock of flint. Who feeds you manna in the wilderness, which not know did your forefathers in order to afflict you and in order to test you, to benefit you in your end. And you may say in your heart, my strength and the might of my hand made for me this wealth! Then you shall remember the Lord, your God for it is he who gives you strength to make wealth in order to establish his covenant that he swore to your forefathers as it is this day. It shall be that if you should in any way forget the Lord, your God and you should go after the gods of others, and you should worship them and you should bow to them – I testify against you today that you will certainly be destroyed, like the nations that the Lord destroys from before you, so will you be destroyed because you will not have listened to the voice of the Lord, your God. Deuteronomy 8:10-20

If we analyze this passage, we can begin to see what kind of commandments these are: God first commands that we are obligated to bless Him for feeling satisfied. Obviously God, who is infinite and omnipotent, does not require our blessings; indeed, one could ask what possible use is there in mere mortals blessing God? What follows is a warning against forgetting Him and becoming materialistic and arrogant. This is not merely good advice; rather, it is a deep psychological insight into humanity. Here we have a step by step breakdown from human being to an arrogant idol worshipper who is worthy of destruction: it begins by forgetting the commandments and forgetting God. Next comes forgetting all of the favors God did for the individual, like taking him out of slavery in Egypt, giving him water from a rock and feeding him food (manna) that appeared miraculously like dew on the ground every morning for forty years. After having fallen so low in gratitude a person will soon come to declare that in fact it is his own great strength that has given him his wealth, thereby excluding the Creator’s role in his success. Finally he will become an idol worshipper who is deserving of capital punishment.

Therefore we have been given the greatest guarantee possible – a divine promise that simply by blessing God, we are defeating a powerful and mysterious human tendency for arrogance and self-worship.

This alone would not necessarily help us in trying to apply this thinking to humility in the extraction of natural resources, especially since this section in particular only applies to blessings made after one eats to satiation. But where can we find a scriptural source for performing blessings before eating? The answer is that there is no known scriptural source for blessings before eating food. In fact, the way we know to say these special blessings is from a logical Talmudic argument found in the tractate Brachot known as “if this then [certainly] this.” This argument is used in the following way: if we have to make blessings [appreciate the source] when we are already full then isn’t it obvious that we need to make blessings [appreciate the source] when we are hungry? On the merit of this argument, which no holy Talmudic Rabbi could defeat, a variety of blessings were created to be said by all persons before partaking of any enjoyable matter in this world. These blessings apply to all foods and drinks as well as smells and they are required for special phenomena and events. Halalchipedia has a full list of different kinds of blessings one makes for different occasions.

ברוך אתה ה’ אלוקינו מלך העולם המוציא לחם מן הארץ

This Hebrew text is a blessing for bread, but what it says it actually quite surprising. Reading from right to left it says, “Blessed are you the Lord, our God, King of the world who took bread out from the Earth.” Maybe we can say that the first part is self-explanatory, acknowledging that God is the source of blessing and the master of the world. But the second part requires some more serious explanation: how did God take the bread out of the Earth? Making bread requires taking wheat, grinding it to flour, making dough, and baking it – only through numerous steps does it become bread. Whole loaves of bread do not grow directly from the ground on stems. What the authors of these blessings wanted to impart on us is that each of those intermediary steps was through God. Even when we were cutting the wheat, it was God helping us. When we were making the dough it was through God’s help, and when it was baked into the perfect final product it was all God’s will all the time.

What about something that a person simply does not make a blessing on, like extracting precious minerals and fuels from the Earth? In that case, he or she is making a valuable income, but since through that comes the danger of becoming very arrogant, shouldn’t they be warned? I would like to elaborate on this question in the following way. What if we incorporate the use of blessings and rely on rabbinical authority as arbitrator between the Earth’s resources and humans? In other words, before someone is allowed to extract the Earth’s goods, there must first be an ordained spiritual leader who advises on issues of gratitude and environmental responsibility. This seems like an idealistic solution which would perhaps only work in a utopian society where we could control all external influences from affecting the arbitrator. Consider that in a field where the needs of the many compete against the needs of the few and those in power are few in number, it is wise to empower the humblest and most prudent decision makers. Everybody would agree to that — except for those in the select group which already wields that power. Unfortunately it is often an individual’s cunning and extravagance which wins him favor from others. Power today is rarely given to someone based upon his spiritual status.

So we don’t have a blessing to say in our scenario. One possible solution that I would like to suggest is the following. The Torah (Hebrew Bible) does not delineate every possible phenomenon or event for which a person might need to say a blessing. Rather, it chooses those which are most common, the reason being that if a person is preoccupied with being thankful to God throughout the day, that mindset will extend into everything the individual does. That might be part of the reason why King David, who was king of Israel and the compiler of the Tehillim (Psalms) required the nation to recite 100 blessings a day. Click here and skip to Page 13 for a list of how to say 100 blessings a day. When contemplating the consequences of carbon dioxide emissions and climate change, saying blessings is only the beginning. We also require the ability to project the outcome of our actions into the future. When we eat something that we like, we make a blessing in the hopes that we will be able to eat it again in the future as well. No one wants their favorite fruit to disappear the next year. But if we don’t make a blessing, the Rabbis teach us that it is as if we stole from God. If we consume something without gratitude we are actually causing a shortage in that thing. I would argue that in our society today where corporations and sovereign nations ignore warning signs and expert advice on climate change, we are doing that same thing on a much larger scale: exemplifying a renegade disregard for the collaborative good; not making enough effort to frontline the planet’s wellbeing.

Perhaps here the natural law is resisting the haughty actions of the few, violating natural calm and increasing threats of extreme weather. So let us conclude that positive change does not elude us. Going carbon negative is a short-term goal and becoming carbon neutral is within our grasp if we want it to be. Being sufficiently grateful for what we have attained as a society, and appreciating what we have inherited from thousands of years of ancestral sweat, blood and tears is probably impossible. But the task of preserving it so that our grandchildren don’t inherit a self-imploding natural disaster is in our hands, dependent on our minds, and within our reach. Just like there are no implied limits to our gratitude, so there should be no limits to creating things that our children will be grateful for. Amongst those things which I think future generations will certainly appreciate are a clean and healthy ecosystem, a plethora of vibrant species with tremendous diversity and a human living condition which contributes to the good in the earth without depleting it. Do you think we will deplete the Earth and have to deal with an ever more combative and hostile environment, or do you think we can embrace humility and gratitude, thereby slowly reversing our course towards sustainability and mutual respect between human and Earth?

Posted in Climate Change | Tagged Adaptation, blessing, Brachot, carbon dioxide, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Climate Change, Earth, Education, Environment, Food, Fossil Fuels, God, Guest Blog, Holocaust, Jew, Jewish, Jews, King David, Oil, Physics, religion, Sustainability, Sustainable, Talmud | 1 Comment

Assessment – Spring 2015 – Earth Day

Posted on April 21, 2015 by climatechangefork

Tomorrow is Earth Day and my wife’s birthday – time to celebrate. It’s also time for the spring assessment of the blog. Everything is blossoming around me and seems to be awakening from a very cold winter. Last week I came back from a conference on climate change in Vancouver, British Columbia. I got a magnified view of Canada’s stuttering energy transition, which I plan to expand upon in future blogs. In other big news, April 13^th was the 70^th anniversary of my liberation from Bergen-Belsen and the nightmares of the Holocaust, by soldiers from the 30^th Division of the American Army. I have just returned from a reunion in Nashville, Tennessee with these soldiers. Frank Towers, the man who organized it, is approaching his 98^th birthday; all of the other soldiers are in their late 80s or early 90s. Time for a new generation to take over.

A slew of important global developments in energy transition took place this month, several of which I will likely cover here in the near future. One of the biggest factors in the present state of the global energy transition has been the recent sharp decrease in the price of fossil fuels. The price decrease is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1 – Recent sharp decrease in global oil prices

One might think that with such a shocking decline in the price of oil and other fossil fuels, the transition to non-fossil energy sources is dead for the foreseeable future, yet an article by Tom Randall forces us to think again. Here are some sections from this article with a figure that tells it all:

Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables
This is the beginning of the end.

by Tom Randall

The race for renewable energy has passed a turning point. The world is now adding more capacity for renewable power each year than coal, natural gas, and oil combined. And there’s no going back.

The shift occurred in 2013, when the world added 143 gigawatts of renewable electricity capacity, compared with 141 gigawatts in new plants that burn fossil fuels, according to an analysis presented Tuesday at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance annual summit in New York. The shift will continue to accelerate, and by 2030 more than four times as much renewable capacity will be added.

“The electricity system is shifting to clean,” Michael Liebreich, founder of BNEF, said in his keynote address. “Despite the change in oil and gas prices there is going to be a substantial buildout of renewable energy that is likely to be an order of magnitude larger than the buildout of coal and gas.”

The price of wind and solar power continues to plummet, and is now on par or cheaper than grid electricity in many areas of the world. Solar, the newest major source of energy in the mix, makes up less than 1 percent of the electricity market today but could be the world’s biggest single source by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.

The question is no longer if the world will transition to cleaner energy, but how long it will take.

Figure 2 – Recent developments and projections of global energy use.

True or not – it remains to be seen, but in the face of the recent changes in the price of fossil fuels, such trends are providing strong hope that the world is making real progress in confronting climate change.

Another recent development that provides great hope for successful mitigation is a recent polling effort by Yale University about American attitudes towards climate change. They investigate 15 indicators and present the results on four different levels: national, state, congressional districts, and counties. On the question of belief that global warming is happening, 63% of adult Americans polled answer in the positive. Breakdown on the states level is shown in Figure 3. On the question of whether global warming is mostly caused by humans, 48% of adult Americans polled answer in the positive. The distribution by state is shown in Figure 4.

For me, the conclusion from this work is clear: the belief that Americans are sharply polarized on climate change is a myth. Sure, there are differences in opinion, but the belief that these differences sharply distribute themselves between red states and blue states is simply not supported by the data.

Figure 3 – State distribution of belief that global warming is happening

Figure 4 – State distribution of belief that global warming is mostly caused by humans

On another note, in my last assessment, I included an update on my readership/ social media progress, so I will do so again here. On Twitter, since January 6th, I have gained 87 followers (bringing my total to 311). I also had 459 link clicks, 14 mentions and 20 retweets. This is all readily accessible information. On Facebook, in the same time period, my page got an additional 12,148 impressions from 8,859 users.

On my blog itself I’m happy to report that I’ve had had 1,219 visits from 515 unique computers, 425 of them new visitors. To those of you reading, I thank you and (as always) welcome your comments.

Posted in Climate Change | Tagged Adaptation, anthropomorphic, Bergen-Belsen, Canada, Clean Energy, Climate Change, Climate Change Deniers, Climate Skeptics, Earth Day, Electricity, Emissions, Energy, energy transition, Environment, Facebook, Fossil Fuels, global energy transition, Global Warming, greenhouse gas, Holocaust, Mitigation, Oil, oil prices, Quarterly Reports, Renewable, Social Media, stuttering energy transition, Sustainability, Technology, Twitter, US, Yale | 8 Comments

Back from Vancouver

Posted on April 14, 2015 by climatechangefork

A view of Vancouver, Canada from the top of Mount Grouse. Photos by my wife, Louise Hainline.

I have just returned from Vancouver, Canada, where I attended the Seventh Climate Change Symposium. This is the same forum held in previous years in Reykjavik, Iceland (July 2014), Mauritius (July 2013) and Seattle (July 2012). I attend these conferences for six reasons:

These meetings are limited to a relatively small number of participants (around 250).
The organizers are fabulous at selecting conference locations.
I have found them to be ideal venues for my students to present their work. In Vancouver, Rui Yan Ma, a student in our Honors College, presented our work on tipping points. It was her first conference presentation and she did a great job.
Each conference focuses on the synergy between local efforts to confront climate change and more global actions.
It attracts participants from all over the world that are focused on the local efforts in their respective countries.
Last but not least, it offers an opportunity for the speakers to publish their findings in the organizers’ fully reviewed journal – another vehicle that offers a chance for students to start their career of doing great science focused on climate change.

I have posted the detailed program of every meeting that I have attended and I am doing the same for the Vancouver meeting. It makes the blog a bit longer than usual but it provides a firsthand idea about the content of these meetings.

A wind turbine at the top of the 4,000ft Mount Grouse in Vancouver. The turbine provides a percentage of the city's power. In previous years, the mountain has been covered with approx. 12ft of snow and has been inaccessible until May. This year, it is already open to the public.

A wind turbine at the top of the 4,000ft Mount Grouse in Vancouver. The turbine provides a percentage of the site’s power. In previous years, the mountain has been covered with approx. 12ft of snow and has been inaccessible until May. This year, it is already open to the public.

I come out of each of these meetings with new perspectives on some important global issues, which I then choose to explore further and share here. This Vancouver Symposium is no exception. I continue to look at various countries and factors that will contribute to the success of the upcoming December 2015 Paris meeting. This time I was prompted to add Canada to the list of countries that I want to explore in greater depth prior to the Paris meeting.

Earth Day is next Wednesday (April 22nd). As you may know, I have profiles on both Facebook and Twitter (I hope you’re already following/liking both). For the next two weeks, I’m calling for your messages, comments and pictures. Tweet to me or post on the CCF Facebook about what you’re doing for Earth Day, what the holiday means to you, and/or just your favorite places, plants or animals that make our planet special. I will be looking out for your contributions and will post and link to them here. I look forward to seeing what you send my way!

Here are some ways to celebrate Earth Day, starting this weekend!

In NYC:
Earth Day Initiative New York
Earth Day 5K Walk and Green Tour
NYC Parks Earth Day & Arbor Day Events
Green Festival Expo NYC
Party Earth: Earth Day 2015 in New York
NYCVP: Earth Day in New York City
New Yorkled: Earth Day New York Events – NYC – New York City

Earth Day Events
Earth Day Network’s Green Cities Events
Global Citizen 2015 Earth Day
Envirolink: Earthday
Facebook: One Billion Trees/Seeds Planted – Earth Day, April 22, 2015

The program schedule of theVancouver Seventh International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts and Responses Whose Climate? Negotiating the Governance of Environmental Change is below:


	CONFERENCE OPENING: Phillip Kalantzis-Cope, Common Ground Publishing, USA
	CONFERENCE WELCOME: Thomas F. Pedersen, Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, Canada
	PLENARY SESSION: Kathryn Harrison, University of British Columbia, Canada
	PLENARY SESSION: Alex Clapp, Simon Fraser University, Canada
	BREAK AND GARDEN SESSION (Kathryn Harrison Garden Session held in C400. Alex Clapp Garden Session held in C215)

11:00-11:45	Talking Circle
C215	Talking Circle: Scientific Evidence & Assessing Impacts in Divergent Ecosystems
C225	Talking Circle: 2015 Special Focus: ‘Whose Climate? Negotiating the Governance of Environmental Change’
C400	Talking Circle: Technical, Political and Social Responses
C485	Talking Circle: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans

11:45-12:35

LUNCH

12:35-13:50	Parallel Sessions
C215	Governance, Economics, and InequalitiesCalifornia’s Push to Transform to a Low Carbon Society: Is It Doomed by the Booming US Shale Market? Dr. Nilmini Silva-Send, Energy Policy Initiatives Center, University of San Diego, San Diego, USA Overview: California’s AB32 to reduce GHGs will “re-make California’s entire energy economy.” Will vast shale oil and gas in the US and perhaps even in California derail this transformation? Theme: Special Theme: Whose Climate? Negotiating the Governance of Environmental ChangeCausal Responsibility, Asymmetric Opportunity and Inequality in Anthropogenic Climate Change: A Behavioral Economics Model of Climate Change Negotiations Dr. Nicholas Alan Seltzer, Department of Political Science, University of Nevada, Reno, Reno, USA Dr. Reuben Kline, Department of Political Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, USA Overview: We introduce an experimental game that captures the interdependent social dilemma of anthropogenic climate change and its mitigation, and present the results of experiments conducted in the US and China. Theme: Special Theme: Whose Climate? Negotiating the Governance of Environmental Change Climate Change Adaptation: How Do We Know We’re Winning? Dr. John Labadie, Seattle, USA Overview: Adaptation is a diffuse, complex activity. Evaluation is a useful tool in managing adaptation programs. It adds value to the process. What does “evaluation” look like in the adaptation context? Theme: Special Theme: Whose Climate? Negotiating the Governance of Environmental Change
C225	Climate Issues in Agriculture and FarmingThe Investigation of Farmers Adaptive Capacity: A Case Study in the West of Iran Behrooz Rasekhi, Department of Agronomy, College of Agriculture, Kermanshah Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran (Islamic Republic of) Hasan Sedighi, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, University of Tarbiat Modares, Iran., Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of) Mohammad Chizari, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, University of Tarbiat Modares, Iran., Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of) Overview: Adaptive capacity is the ability of individuals and groups to adapt or adjust to ‎climate variability and change and accommodate shock and stress to ‎systems. ‎ ‎ Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on HumansTechnological Innovations in the Wake of Climate Change by Farmers in Cameroon Nkengafah Veronica Fonya, Faculty of Lifelong Education Department of Community Deveopment, Hanseo University, Suwon, South Korea Overview: Changes in temperature and rainfall have influenced cocoa farmers to adopt new technologies to increase the quantity and quality of cocoa production in Cameroon. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans The Vulnerability of Small-holder Agriculture to Climate Change in Boset Woreda, Oromia Region, Ethiopia Emebet Bekele, Institute of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, Port Harcourt, Nigeria Overview: This research paper examined vulnerability of smallholder agriculture to climate change by comparing vulnerability indicators. It also assessed the perceptions of farmers on climate change and adaptation measures. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans
C400	Global Tipping PointsPredicting Global Tipping Points Micha Tomkiewicz, Dept. of Physics, Brooklyn College of CUNY, Brooklyn, USA Rui Yan Ma, Dept. of Physics, Queens College, Queens College, CUNY, Queens, USA Overview: The study will focus on our attempts to predict tipping points in the climate system through critical slowdown and increase variability in time series data. Theme: Scientific EvidencePhenological Mapping for Climate Change Research Prof. Vit Vozenilek, Dept. of Geoinformatics, Palacky University, Olomouc, Olomouc, Czech Republic Dr. Radim Tolasz, Climate Change Department, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Praha 4 – Komořany, Czech Republic Dr. Lenka Hajkova, Meteorology and Climatology Division, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Usti nad Labem, Czech Republic Dr. Alena Vondrakova, Dept. of Geoinformatics, Palacky University, Olomouc, Olomouc, Czech Republic Ales Vavra, Dept. of Geoinformatics, Palacky University, Olomouc, Olomouc, Czech Republic Overview: The authors employed spatial analysis of twenty-year series of phenological observations. They came to the conclusion that there was a shift in the onset of phenological phases in 1991-2010. Theme: Scientific Evidence Regional Differences of the Dust Events in Mongolia Amgalan Ganbat, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University of Taiwan, Jhongly, Taiwan Prof. Gin-Rong Liu, Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, Jhongli, Taiwan Overview: We discuss the regional differences in the characteristics of relationships among frequencies of dusty day(sum of dust storm and drifting dust), surface wind and precipitation during 2000-2013 in Mongolia. Theme: Scientific Evidence
C485	Social ResponsesENGOs, Informal Social Networks, and Mobilizing the Public to Deal with Climate Change Dr. David B. Tindall, Department of Sociology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Georgia Piggot, Department of Sociology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Overview: This study examines the social influence of environmental movement members on climate change attitudes in the Canadian general public. Theme: Technical, Political and Social ResponsesBlame Canada: Environmental Movements, National Media, and Canada’s Reputation as a Climate Villain Dr. Mark CJ Stoddart, Department of Sociology, Memorial University, St. John’s, Canada Jillian Smith, Department of Sociology, Memorial University, St. John’s, Canada Dr. David B. Tindall, Department of Sociology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Overview: We examine how Canadian national news coverage provided space for environmental organizations to use the 2009 Copenhagen COP-15 meetings to “name and shame” Canada for its poor environmental performance. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses Challenges in Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Local Land Use Planning: Evidence from Albay, Philippines Sining C. Cuevas, School of Geography, Planning, and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia Dr. Ann Peterson, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia Dr. Tiffany Morrison, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia Dr. Catherine Robinson, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Brisbane, Australia Overview: This study offers empirical evidence on the barriers and opportunities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into local land use planning in Albay, Philippines. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses
Theatre	Late Additions 1 (Check board for additions)The Effect of Climate Change on the Occurrence of Pests and Diseases on Potatoes in Benguet Province Ms. Hilaria Badival, Research, Department of Agriculture-Cordillera Administrative Region, Baguio City, Philippines Overview: This paper is focused on the effect of climate on the occurrence of pests and diseases in the production of the potato. Theme: Technical, Political and Social ResponsesAnalyzing the Mitigation Potential of Climate Change through Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration in a Corn Belt Watershed Mukesh Bhattarai, Environmental Resources and Policy Program, Southern Illinois University Carbondale (SIUC), Carbondale, USA Overview: The sequestration of carbon through facilitating the retention of the soil’s organic carbon constitutes one of the main possibilities for climate change in mitigating agriculture’s contributions to global warming. Theme: Special Theme: Whose Climate? Negotiating the Governance of Environmental Change

13:50-14:05

BREAK

14:05-15:45	Parallel Sessions
C215	Political ResponsesUrban Climate Action Planning: Demonstration of GHG Mitigation Tool for Analysis of Local Energy and Climate Policies Elizabeth Johnston, Energy Policy Initiatives Center, University of San Diego, San DIego, USA Dr. Nilmini Silva-Send, Energy Policy Initiatives Center, University of San Diego, San Diego, USA Overview: California cities must do their fair share to reduce GHGs from local policies. We will demonstrate our mitigation tool used to help cities analyze local policies. Theme: Technical, Political and Social ResponsesThe Implications of a US Border Tax Adjustment on Carbon Intensive Goods for Treaty Formation Dr. Ross Astoria, Department of Politics, Philosophy, and Law, Kensoah, USA Overview: This paper consider the best way to design a US border tax adjustment on imported carbon intensive goods so as to facilitate effective treaty formation. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses Making Carbon Pricing Work without Global Agreement Dr. Jane N. O’Sullivan, School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia Overview: Choice of carbon pricing system is critical to mitigation. International carbon trading presents many barriers to sufficient and equitable change. A consumption-based tax is explained which enables strong unilateral action. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses
C225	Impacts on Human HealthPlanning for the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Focus on Cities Sabrina Dekker, School of Geography, Planning, and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, Coquitlam, Canada Overview: The objective of this paper is to determine how cities are planning for the impacts of climate change on human health, especially as they strive to make cities resilient. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on HumansClimate Challenges: Development of Heat Adaptation Strategies for the Elderly Assoc. Prof. Hans-Peter Hutter, Institute of Environmental Health, Center for Public Health, Medical University Vienna, Austria, Vienna, Austria Assoc. Prof. Dr. Arne Arnberger, Institute of Landscape Development, Recreation and Conservation Planning, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Vienna, Austria Brigitte Allex, Institute of Landscape Development, Recreation and Conservation Planning, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Vienna, Austria Dr. Renate Eder, Institute of Landscape Development, Recreation and Conservation Planning, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Vienna, Austria Prof. Franz Kolland, Institute of Sociology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Anna Wanka, Institute of Sociology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Prof. Beate Blaettner, Department of Nursing and Health Science, University of Applied Sciences Fulda, Fulda, Germany Prof. Annette Grewe, Department of Nursing and Health Sciences, University of Applied Sciences Fulda, Fulda, Germany Prof. Michael Kundi, Institute of Environmental Health, Center for Public Health, Medical University Vienna, Austria, Vienna, Austria Dr. Peter Wallner, Medicine and Environmental Protection, Vienna, Austria, Vienna, Austria Overview: The STOPHOT-project is the first investigation in Austria to establish a comprehensive knowledge base on heat perception, awareness of heat risks and adaptive/coping behaviors among older adults. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans The Health Impacts of Severe Climate Shocks in Colombia Mauricio Giovanni Valencia-Amaya, Faculty of Economics, Universidad del Rosario & Universidad de Antioquia, Bogotá D.C., Colombia Dolores de la Mata, Buenos Aires, Argentina Overview: This paper studies the link between severe weather shocks in Colombia and municipality-level incidence of dengue and malaria, using a differences-in-differences strategy. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans Impact of Climate Change on Seniors’ Health in Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria Aina Thompson Adeboyejo, Department of Urban and Regional Planning Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology,Ogbomoso Nigeria., Ogbomoso, Nigeria Aluko Oluwapelumi Esther, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, : Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria Olamiju John Kehinde, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Ogbomoso, Nigeria Overview: This study examines the impact of climate change on seniors’ health in Ibadan, South-Western Nigeria. The incidence and variations of climate related diseases were correlated with climatic parameters. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans
C485	ColloquiumIdentifying Climate Change Mitigation Pathways in Canada Catherine Potvin, Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Canada Ashlee Cunsolo-Willox, Nursing, cross-appointed in Indigenous Studies, Cape Breton University, Canada Lauchlan Fraser, Natural Resource Sciences and Biological Sciences, Thompson Rivers University, Canada Alain Bourque, Founder and Coordinator of Impacts and Adaptation program, Canada John Robinson, Institute for Resources, Environment & Sustainability, and Dept. of Geography Organization, University of British Columbia, Canada Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP) Dept. of Forest Resources Management/School of Architecture and Landscape Architecture, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Sally Aitken, Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Canada Dr Fikret Berkes, Natural Resources Institute, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada Rosine Faucher, Political Science, McGill University, Montreal, Canada Tarah Wright, Environmental Science, Dalhousie University, Truro, Canada Natalie Richards, Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Canada Laura Cameron, Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Canada Dr. Mark CJ Stoddart, Department of Sociology, Memorial University, St. John’s, Canada Aerin Jacob, Geography, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada Overview: Visioning, visualization and scenario building has been used in rural/urban settings across Canada, identifying desired technology, policy, community responses to climate change to suggest socially acceptable mitigation pathways. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses
Theatre	Featured ColloquiumImpacts of Climate Change on Health: A Growing Challenge for Health Systems Dr. Tim Takaro, Faculty of Health Science, Simon Fraser University and Climate Change Health Policy Group, Vancouver, Canada Dr. Sarah Henderson, Centres for Disease Control and University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Dr. Carl Lowenburger, Dept Biological Science, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, Canada Bimal Chhetri, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University and BC Center for Disease Control, Vancouver, Canada Dr. Maya Gislason, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, Canada Stacy Barter, BC Healthy Communities Society, Vancouver, Canada Overview: This colloquium will describe health system response needed to address the impacts of climate change, including heat-related mortality, infectious diseases and the identification of vulnerable populations. Theme: Special Theme: Whose Climate? Negotiating the Governance of Environmental Change

15:45-16:45

CONFERENCE RECEPTION

Saturday, 11 April

8:30-9:00

REGISTRATION DESK OPEN

9:00-10:40	Parallel Sessions
Theatre	The BC Experience with Climate Change Action Matt Horne, Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, Vancouver, Canada Dr. Werner Kurz, Canadian Forest Service (Natural Resources Canada), Canada Suzanne Spence, BC Climate Action Secretariat, Canada Malcolm Shield, City of Vancouver, Vancouver, Canada Tom Pedersen, The Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, Vancouver, Canada Overview: This session will explore several topics and describe successes as well as issues that have arisen after the days of climate action in 2007 and 2008. Theme: Special Theme: Whose Climate? Negotiating the Governance of Environmental Change

9:00-10:40

Parallel Sessions

Theatre

The BC Experience with Climate Change Action
Matt Horne, Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, Vancouver, Canada
Dr. Werner Kurz, Canadian Forest Service (Natural Resources Canada), Canada
Suzanne Spence, BC Climate Action Secretariat, Canada
Malcolm Shield, City of Vancouver, Vancouver, Canada
Tom Pedersen, The Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, Vancouver, Canada
Overview: This session will explore several topics and describe successes as well as issues that have arisen after the days of climate action in 2007 and 2008.
Theme: Special Theme: Whose Climate? Negotiating the Governance of Environmental Change

10:40-10:50

Break

10:50-12:05	Parallel Sessions
C215	Technical ResponsesUtilization of Natural Gas Capacity in Response to US Clean Power Plan Kelly Ann Stevens, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University, Syracuse, USA Overview: This study evaluates the factors that have influenced utilization of natural gas power plants in order to make policy recommendations for state-level compliance with the U.S. EPA’s Clean Power Plan. Theme: Technical, Political and Social ResponsesImpacts of Sea Level Rise on Wastewater Infrastructure Dr. Phillip Thompson, Center for Environmental Justice and Sustainability, Seattle University, Seattle, USA Overview: This paper discusses mitigation strategies for protecting wastewater infrastructure in Seattle from sea level rise. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses Applying the PMBOK Response Planning Standards to Sea-Level Rise in Florida: Risk Mitigation Solutions for Florida Infrastructure Dr. Maryam Mirhadi Fard, Powell Center for Construction & Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA Hamed Hakim, Powell Center for Construction & Environment, University of Florida, USA Prof. Charles J. Kibert, Powell Center for Construction & Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA Overview: This paper proposes a methodology for assessing both the risks to Florida infrastructure posed by sea level rise and proposed engineering and relocation mitigation strategies. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses
C225	Infrastructures and SustainabilityImpact of Climate Change on Critical Infrastructure and Security Dr. Linda Kiltz, School of Public Policy and Administration, Walden University, Silverdale, USA Overview: This paper analyzes how climate change vulnerability will impact critical infrastructure in the U.S. and how it is linked to security. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on HumansClimate Change Effects on Growth and Development: A Case Study of the East African Region Douglas Kazibwe, SAGE Africa – Sustainable Community Research Committee, Allied Network for Policy, Research and Actions for Sustainability, Lessebo, Sweden Overview: What are the responses that are being taken at regional, national and local government levels to ensure sustainable development? Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans Biodiversity and Climate Change in Central Africa: Perceptions, Attitudes and Policies Dr. Trevon Fuller, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA Anthony Trochez, Department of Education, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA Thomas P. Narins, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA Dr. Thomas Smith, Center for Tropical Research, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA Dr. Walter Allen, Graduate School of Education and Information Studies, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA Overview: This study develops a framework for conserving the biodiversity of the Central African rainforest under climate change that is informed by the socioeconomic constraints of the region. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans
C400	Issues in the EnvironmentThe Carbon Capturing Mechanism Using Peat Treatment in Cameron Highland Malaysia ShunYing Kwang, KC Kwang & Sons Ltd., Cameron Higland, Malaysia EeFu Kwang, 33, Lorry Store Main Road Kampong Raja, 39010, KC Kwang & Sons Pte Ltd, Cameron Highland, Malaysia Davis Tee, R&D & HSE, KC Kwang & Sons Pte Ltd, Cameron Highland, Malaysia Dr. Ching Seong Tan, R&D, K. C Kwang & Sons Pte Ltd & Multimedia University, Cameron Highland, Malaysia Overview: We aim to reduce CO2 emission and develop best management practices for highland agricultural activities in Cameron Highland Malaysia. We propose to infuse peat treatment into the current land use. Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent EcosystemsHow Traveling Athletes Affect the Environment Adekunle Dosumu, School of Biological Sciences, University of Essex, Colchester, UK Overview: Running is among the popular sports in the UK. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from travel of participants to running clubs, parks and the gym could have significant environmental impact. Theme: Scientific Evidence Modeling Greenhouse Gas Emission in Evacuation Traffic: The Case of Hurricane Rita Evacuation in 2005 Dr. Praveen Maghelal, Department of Public Administration, University of North Texas, Denton, USA Dr. Xiangyu Li, Department of Political Science and Criminal Justice, West Texas A&M University, Canyon, USA Overview: This is one of first studies that estimates the CO2 emission resulting from mass evacuation during natural disasters. Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent Ecosystems
C485	Social Responses to Climate ChangePsychological Barriers to Climate Change Mitigation in Canadians: The Importance of Powerlessness, Perceived Risk, Uncertainty, and the Commons Dilemma Prof. Gary Pickering, Environmental Sustainability Research Centre, Brock University, St Catharines, Canada Overview: This study establishes the contribution of perceived powerlessness, perceived risk, uncertainty, and the commons dilemma in influencing inaction on climate change in Canadian adults. Theme: Technical, Political and Social ResponsesA Web Platform for Capitalizing on High-resolution Projections in Applications on Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning Dr. Yingjiu Bai, Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, Fujisawa, Japan Prof. Ikuyo Kaneko, Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, Fujisawa, Japan Prof. Hiroaki Nishi, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Keio University, Yokohama, Japan Dr. Hidetaka Sasaki, Atmospheric Environment and Applied Meteorology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan Dr. Akihiko Murata, Atmospheric Environment and Applied Meteorology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan Kazuo Kurihara, Atmospheric Environment and Applied Meteorology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan Dr. Izuru Takayabu, Atmospheric Environment and Applied Meteorology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan Overview: This methodology could be transferred to developing countries via the Internet. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses Increased Temperature Affects Human Skin Cells Increasing Skin Cancer Risk: Increased Temperature Exacerbates UV Mediated Risk of Skin Cancer Prof. Melanie Ziman, School of Medical Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia Leslie Calapre, School of Medical Science, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia Dr. Elin Gray, School of Medical Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia Dr. Pascal Descargues, Genoskin, Toulouse, France Overview: Investigation of the effects of increased temperatures and UV exposure on skin cells in vitro and ex vivo show cellular and molecular changes associated with increased risk of skin cancer. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans
Theatre	WorkshopLocal Government and Transformation to Address Climate Change in British Columbia Communities Meg Holden, Urban Studies Program and Geography Department, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, Canada Dr. Ann Dale, School of Environment and Sustainability, Royal Roads, Victoria, Canada Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP) Dept. of Forest Resources Management/School of Architecture and Landscape Architecture, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Dr. John Robinson, Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Alastair Moore, School of Environment, Education and Development, University of Manchester/Royal Roads University, Vancouver, Canada Eric Brown, Urban Studies, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, Canada Dr. Mark Stevens, School of Community and Regional Planning, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Overview: We reflect on policy innovation and action at the local government level in BC communities. Hear case study research on BC community leaders of particular climate change policy and action. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses

12:05-12:50

LUNCH

12:50-13:35	Parallel Sessions
C400	Featured WorkshopWhat Works in Fostering Behaviour Change on Global Warming? A Synthesis of Social Mobilization Research in British Columbia Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP) Dept. of Forest Resources Management/School of Architecture and Landscape Architecture, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Deepti Mathew Iype, Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP) Department of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Overview: This synthesis will summarize and showcase success stories, lessons learned, and implications revealed by a cluster of Social Mobilization research projects supported by the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions. Theme: Scientific Evidence
Theatre Lobby	PostersThe Impacts of Climate Change on the Aquatic Ecosystem of Cuatro Cienegas Basin, Mexico Dr. Marina Herrera-Pantoja, Department of Information Technology, Queretaro Water Commission, Queretaro, Mexico Overview: A GIS model is used to map stress tolerance levels of Cuatro Cienegas wetlands plants to dryness and wetness conditions simulated for the B1 and A1B future emissions scenarios. Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent EcosystemsPredicting Korean Pine Distribution under Climate Change Ahn Yoonjung, Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea Dong Kun Lee, Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea Ho Gul Kim, Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea Jae Uk Kim, Environmental Information Research, Korea Environment Institute, Seoul, South Korea Overview: This study analyzed the distribution of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) which is one of major and vulnerable species under climate change in South Korea. Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent Ecosystems Optimization of a Carbon Footprint Calculator: Regional Energy Use and Offset Considerations Anna Kelly, School of Public Policy, Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA Patrick Kelly, Corvallis, USA Julian Preciado, Corvallis, USA Dr. Sally Duncan, Oregon State University Policy Analysis Laboratory, Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA Dr. Frederick Colwell, Department of Ocean, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA Overview: We present an optimization of a detailed carbon calculator applied at the local level, and connected with local NGOs to establish feasible carbon offsets through energy efficiency and conservation efforts. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses The Number of Storms Modeled as a Poisson Random Variable to Northeast Coast of South America Prof. Lazaro Nonato Vasconcellos de Andrade, Departamento de Ciências Exatas e da Terra (Department of Earth’s Science)., Universidade do Estado da Bahia – UNEB., Salvador, Brazil Ronaldo Santos Guedes, Departamento de Ciências Exatas e da Terra (Earth’s Science Department), Universidade do estado da Bahia – UNEB., Salvador, Brazil Overview: Return periods of continental northwest coast of South America storms were estimated from Poisson processes and extreme value techniques. The hypothesis that storm frequencies are increasing in time is tested. Theme: Scientific Evidence Lifecycle Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Mining and Milling of Uranium in Saskatchewan David Parker, Civil & Geological Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada Overview: This study presents a detailed study of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions during the uranium mining-milling phase of the nuclear fuel cycle for three paired mine-mill operations in northern Saskatchewan. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses Effects of Climate Change Considerations in Environmental Impact Assessment: The Case of British Columbia’s Natural Gas Sector Lindsay Luke, Department of Geography, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada Dr. Bram Noble, Department of Geography and Planning, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada Overview: This research examines the effects of climate change considerations on the environmental impact assessment process with a focus on British Columbia’s natural gas industry. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses Nursing Educators and Climate Change: An Attitudinal Study Dr. Phyllis Eide, College of Nursing, Washington State University, Spokane, USA Overview: Incorporating knowledge about climate change’s health impacts into nursing education curricula requires understanding about educators’ attitudes regarding the topic, which will drive decisions as to course content. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses The Soil Profile Temperature under Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems Dr. Abdirashid Elmi, Environmental Technology Management Department, Kuwait University, Kuwait, Kuwait Overview: This study attempts to answer the question of whether or not soil temperature changes can be used as a reliable indicator of global climate change under hot and desert ecosystems. Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent Ecosystems Emergence of No-analog Bioclimates in British Columbia: New Methods for Measuring Analog Goodness-of-fit in Bioclimate Envelope and Species Distribution Modeling Colin Mahony, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Overview: We propose a new method for detection of novel bioclimates in climate change projections. Preliminary results indicate emergence of substantially novel climates in coastal British Columbia. Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent Ecosystems Fracking Field Trips Matthew Jenkins, Department of Art, Metropolitan State University of Denver, Denver, USA Overview: This study offers a collection of photographs of field trips to hydraulic fracturing sites in Colorado. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans Forest Development and Removal of Environmental Pollutants through Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions Zahra Zakeralhosseini, Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of) Overview: This is a multi-purpose solution using Multi-Criteria Approach (MCA)to remove environmental pollutants caused by increasing greenhouse gases through NAMAs. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans Impacts of Climate and Sea-level Changes on the Mangroves from Brazilian Littoral Prof. Marcelo Cancela Lisboa Cohen, Institute of Geoscience, Federal University of Pará, Belem, Brazil Overview: Based on multi-proxy analyses of sediment cores from Brazilian littoral, I identified the impacts of climatic and sea-level changes on mangroves during the last centuries. Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent Ecosystems Stakeholder Involvement in Understanding the Economic Impacts of Climate Change and Storm Events on Maritime Infrastructure: Rhode Island Pilot Study Eric Kretsch, Department of Marine Affairs, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, USA Dr. Austin Becker, Departments of Marine Affairs and Landscape Architecture, University of Rhode Island, USA Overview: Often it is difficult to understand the impacts of climate change and storm events on the economy. This project attempts to clarify impacts using stakeholder involvement. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans Assessing the Impact of Irrigation on Global Warming Tayler McPeak, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Nebraska at Kearney, Kearney, USA Vijendra Boken, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Nebraska at Kearney, Kearney, USA Overview: Irrigation tends to increase the concentration of water vapor, one of the greenhouse gases. This study examines the relationship between irrigated acres, soil moisture, and the temperatures in Nebraska. Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent Ecosystems

12:50-13:35

Parallel Sessions

C400

Featured WorkshopWhat Works in Fostering Behaviour Change on Global Warming? A Synthesis of Social Mobilization Research in British Columbia
Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP) Dept. of Forest Resources Management/School of Architecture and Landscape Architecture, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
Deepti Mathew Iype, Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP) Department of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
Overview: This synthesis will summarize and showcase success stories, lessons learned, and implications revealed by a cluster of Social Mobilization research projects supported by the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions.
Theme: Scientific Evidence

Theatre Lobby

PostersThe Impacts of Climate Change on the Aquatic Ecosystem of Cuatro Cienegas Basin, Mexico
Dr. Marina Herrera-Pantoja, Department of Information Technology, Queretaro Water Commission, Queretaro, Mexico
Overview: A GIS model is used to map stress tolerance levels of Cuatro Cienegas wetlands plants to dryness and wetness conditions simulated for the B1 and A1B future emissions scenarios.
Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent EcosystemsPredicting Korean Pine Distribution under Climate Change
Ahn Yoonjung, Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Dong Kun Lee, Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Ho Gul Kim, Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Jae Uk Kim, Environmental Information Research, Korea Environment Institute, Seoul, South Korea
Overview: This study analyzed the distribution of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) which is one of major and vulnerable species under climate change in South Korea.
Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent Ecosystems

Optimization of a Carbon Footprint Calculator: Regional Energy Use and Offset Considerations
Anna Kelly, School of Public Policy, Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA
Patrick Kelly, Corvallis, USA
Julian Preciado, Corvallis, USA
Dr. Sally Duncan, Oregon State University Policy Analysis Laboratory, Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA
Dr. Frederick Colwell, Department of Ocean, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA
Overview: We present an optimization of a detailed carbon calculator applied at the local level, and connected with local NGOs to establish feasible carbon offsets through energy efficiency and conservation efforts.
Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses

The Number of Storms Modeled as a Poisson Random Variable to Northeast Coast of South America
Prof. Lazaro Nonato Vasconcellos de Andrade, Departamento de Ciências Exatas e da Terra (Department of Earth’s Science)., Universidade do Estado da Bahia – UNEB., Salvador, Brazil
Ronaldo Santos Guedes, Departamento de Ciências Exatas e da Terra (Earth’s Science Department), Universidade do estado da Bahia – UNEB., Salvador, Brazil
Overview: Return periods of continental northwest coast of South America storms were estimated from Poisson processes and extreme value techniques. The hypothesis that storm frequencies are increasing in time is tested.
Theme: Scientific Evidence

Lifecycle Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Mining and Milling of Uranium in Saskatchewan
David Parker, Civil & Geological Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
Overview: This study presents a detailed study of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions during the uranium mining-milling phase of the nuclear fuel cycle for three paired mine-mill operations in northern Saskatchewan.
Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses

Effects of Climate Change Considerations in Environmental Impact Assessment: The Case of British Columbia’s Natural Gas Sector
Lindsay Luke, Department of Geography, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
Dr. Bram Noble, Department of Geography and Planning, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
Overview: This research examines the effects of climate change considerations on the environmental impact assessment process with a focus on British Columbia’s natural gas industry.
Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses

Nursing Educators and Climate Change: An Attitudinal Study
Dr. Phyllis Eide, College of Nursing, Washington State University, Spokane, USA
Overview: Incorporating knowledge about climate change’s health impacts into nursing education curricula requires understanding about educators’ attitudes regarding the topic, which will drive decisions as to course content.
Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses

The Soil Profile Temperature under Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems
Dr. Abdirashid Elmi, Environmental Technology Management Department, Kuwait University, Kuwait, Kuwait
Overview: This study attempts to answer the question of whether or not soil temperature changes can be used as a reliable indicator of global climate change under hot and desert ecosystems.
Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent Ecosystems

Emergence of No-analog Bioclimates in British Columbia: New Methods for Measuring Analog Goodness-of-fit in Bioclimate Envelope and Species Distribution Modeling
Colin Mahony, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
Overview: We propose a new method for detection of novel bioclimates in climate change projections. Preliminary results indicate emergence of substantially novel climates in coastal British Columbia.
Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent Ecosystems

Fracking Field Trips
Matthew Jenkins, Department of Art, Metropolitan State University of Denver, Denver, USA
Overview: This study offers a collection of photographs of field trips to hydraulic fracturing sites in Colorado.
Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans

Forest Development and Removal of Environmental Pollutants through Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
Zahra Zakeralhosseini, Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Overview: This is a multi-purpose solution using Multi-Criteria Approach (MCA)to remove environmental pollutants caused by increasing greenhouse gases through NAMAs.
Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans

Impacts of Climate and Sea-level Changes on the Mangroves from Brazilian Littoral
Prof. Marcelo Cancela Lisboa Cohen, Institute of Geoscience, Federal University of Pará, Belem, Brazil
Overview: Based on multi-proxy analyses of sediment cores from Brazilian littoral, I identified the impacts of climatic and sea-level changes on mangroves during the last centuries.
Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent Ecosystems

Stakeholder Involvement in Understanding the Economic Impacts of Climate Change and Storm Events on Maritime Infrastructure: Rhode Island Pilot Study
Eric Kretsch, Department of Marine Affairs, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, USA
Dr. Austin Becker, Departments of Marine Affairs and Landscape Architecture, University of Rhode Island, USA
Overview: Often it is difficult to understand the impacts of climate change and storm events on the economy. This project attempts to clarify impacts using stakeholder involvement.
Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans

Assessing the Impact of Irrigation on Global Warming
Tayler McPeak, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Nebraska at Kearney, Kearney, USA
Vijendra Boken, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Nebraska at Kearney, Kearney, USA
Overview: Irrigation tends to increase the concentration of water vapor, one of the greenhouse gases. This study examines the relationship between irrigated acres, soil moisture, and the temperatures in Nebraska.
Theme: Assessing Impacts in Divergent Ecosystems

13:35-13:45

BREAK

13:45-15:00	Parallel Sessions
C215	Natural Resources and Change ScenariosAnalytical Study of Rate Volume Annual Liquid Water Content: Water in Clouds Dr. Neamah Mohsen Lafta Al Fatla, Atmospheric Science Department, in Al-Mustansiriyah University, Science College, Al-Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad, Iraq Dr. Layth M.M. Zangana, Department of Social Science, Garmyan University, Iraq Dr. Basim Ibrahim Al-Temimi Wahab, Atmospheric Science, Al-Mustansiriyah University, Iraq Overview: Iraq suffers from a severe declining we can call catastrophic in water resources, due to disagreement Share water with the neighboring countries Turkey, Syria and Iran. Theme: Scientific EvidenceThe Link between Altered Soil Processes Due to Rising Atmospheric CO2 and Global Tree Decline Barbara Czerniakowski, This research was conducted by the Bioscience Research Division, Department of Primary Industries, Victoria (Australia) where I was a principle researcher investigating causes of Australian native tree decline. At present, an Independent Scientist holding DPI’s research licence to present and to publish the results of this research., Melbourne, Australia Overview: The proposed influence of rising CO2 on the Australian native tree decline and its potential link with other tree declines will be presented. Theme: Scientific Evidence The Irreversibility of Sea Level Rise Kirsten Zickfeld, Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, Canada Overview: Sea level will continue to rise even if greenhouse gas emissions will be halted completely. Can artificial removal of carbon dioxide form the atmosphere reverse and stabilize sea level rise? Theme: Scientific Evidence
C225	Geopolitics and Adaptive MeasuresComparative Study on Municipal Emissions Trading Schemes in Asia: China, India, and Japan Dr. Kenichi Imai, Research Department, Asian Growth Research Institute, Kitakyushu, Japan Overview: This paper compares and analyses municipal emissions trading schemes of China, India, and Japan, and their expected impacts on the abatement targets, the abatement costs, and the abatement technologies. Theme: Technical, Political and Social ResponsesHow Does Sovereignty of Arctic Russia Canada Reflect Realism Theory? Miss Fazolatkhon Nasretdinova, American Graduate School in Paris, France, American Graduate School in Paris, France, Massy, France Overview: In this paper I illustrates how a claim of sovereignty over the Arctic by Russia and Canada can reflect Realism theory?” Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses Climate Protection and Adaption: Towards A Nature‐orientated, Climate‐friendly Metropolitan Region 2050 Dr. Kristin Barbey, KIT, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Lecturer, Researcher City of Karlsruhe, agency of urban planning, Architect, Karlsruhe, Germany Overview: This research project develops an integrative concept, which connects spatial strategies climate protection & adaptation and offers an overview about required transforming processes towards a Nature‐orientated, Climate‐friendly Metropolitan Region 2050. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses
C400	Anthropogenic Factors in Climate ChangeThe Ground-Level Ozone-related Social Welfare Impact of Climate Change Dr. Jin Huang, Environment and Resources, Abt Associates, Mountain View, USA Dr. Anna Belova, Environment and Resources Division, Abt Associates Inc., Pittsburgh, USA Dr. Jonathan Dorn, USA Dr. Frank Divita, USA Overview: We estimate the magnitude and composition of social welfare impacts associated with climate-change induced ground-level ozone changes, explicitly taking into account the intervention of existing U.S. air quality standards. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on HumansThe Impact of Urban Areas on Development of Urban Heat Island: The Case of Rawalpindi City in Pakistan Khuram Shahzad, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Sargodha, Sargodha, Pakistan Dr. Hussain Sajjad, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Sargodha, Sargodha, Pakistan Sadaf Hussain, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Sargodha, Sargodha, Pakistan Rabia Batool, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Sargodha, Sargodha, Pakistan Overview: The study focuses on the development of urban heat islands due to the impact of urban areas. The study is mainly concern to the city of Rawalpindi in Pakistan. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans Municipal Solid Waste Management in Greater Jos, Nigeria Gwom Peter, School of the Built Environment Heriot Watt University Edinburgh United Kingdom, Heriot-Watt University Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK Prof. Colin Jones, School of the Built Environment, Heriot -Watt University, Edinburgh, UK Prof. Adebayo Adeloye, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK Overview: Municipal solid waste management is an integral system. The current status of Greater Jos has been affected by unfavourable economic, institutional, legislative, technical and operational constraints. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses
C485	Institutional Responses and StrategiesTeaching Climate Change in a Business School Curriculum: The Case of an Intermediate-level Financial Management Course Dr. John B. Mitchell, Department of Finance and Law College of Business Administration, Central Michigan University, Mt. Pleasant, USA Overview: A simple method incorporating teaching of climate change in a business curriculum including assignment, grading rubric, and source material links. Project increases student awareness and conformity with climate change science. Theme: Technical, Political and Social ResponsesSustainability Education Across the Curriculum: Higher Education Strategies Dr. Srijana Bajracharya, Health Promotion & Physical Education, Ithaca College, Ithaca, USA Overview: This proposal describes a process of designing and integrating a course on sustainability theme to satisfy a long term goal of combating overall climate change. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses Scientists’ Views and Stands on Global Warming and Climate Change: A Content Analysis of Congressional Testimonies Dr. Xinsheng Liu, Institute for Science, Technology and Public Policy in the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA Dr. Arnold Vedlitz, Institute for Science, Technology and Public Policy in the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA Dr. James W. Stoutenborough, Department of Political Science, Idaho State University, Pocatello, USA Dr. Scott Robinson, Department of Political Science, University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA Overview: Empirical research of climate scientists’ congressional hearing testimonies shows a clear message that there is a climate change problem, its cause is at least partially anthropogenic, and support for policies. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses
Theatre	Change AdaptationA Facilitative Tool for Finding Common Ground on Climate Policy in the Face of Uncertainty and Disagreement April Danae Presler, The Evergreen State College, Olympia, USA Overview: I discuss testing risk management approaches to discussing climate change and how this enables diverse groups to find common ground on climate policy. Theme: Technical, Political and Social ResponsesHousehold Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts in Eastern Cape, South Africa: Implications of Socio-economic Settings Dr. Kenneth Nhundu, Risk & Vulnerability Science Centre, University of Fort Hare, Alice, South Africa Overview: The communities in the rural South Africa are predominantly rural, resource-based and understanding their characteristics will ensure that targeted climate change interventions are localised and target the most vulnerable. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses Farmer Perceptions of Climate Change and Responses in Danish Agriculture Bryndis Woods, Environment and Natural Resources, University of Iceland and Aarhus University, Copenhagen, Denmark Helle Ørsted Nielsen, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark Dr. Anders Branth Pedersen, Aarhus University, Copenhagen, Denmark Daði Már Kristófersson, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland Overview: This paper investigates perceptions of climate change and elicits the importance of such perceptions as a determinant of past crop choice and future willingness to adapt. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses

15:00-15:10

BREAK

15:10-16:25	Parallel Sessions
C215	The Policies and Politics of Changing ClimatesStructural versus Cultural Influences on National Climate Change Policies David Goetze, Political Science Department, Utah State University, Logan, USA Chong Chen, Political Science Department, Utah State University, Logan, USA Jenna Williams, Political Science Department, Utah State University, Logan, USA Jessica Andreasen, Political Science Department, Utah State University, Logan, USA Scott Winslow, Political Science Department, Utah State University, Logan, USA Overview: In this study, the authors examine and compare cultural and structural influences on climate change policies in Brazil, China, Germany, and the United States. Theme: Technical, Political and Social ResponsesMNCs’ Human Rights Responsibility under International Climate Change Governance Tsung-Sheng Liao, Department of Law, National Chung Cheng University, Chiayi, Taiwan Overview: MNCs’ responsibility for human rights infringement under climate change might be the cornerstone to bring MNCs into structures of climate change governance. Also, a new Protocol of MNCs is suggested. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses Framing Community Climate Change Adaptation: Challenges and Implication for Physical Planning in Caribbean Small Island Developing States Dellarue Howard, School of Planning, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada Overview: This is a critique of the conceptual thinking and development of climate change adaptation related policies in the Caribbean and their impact on adaptation outcomes at the community level. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses
C225	Mitigation and ReparationClimate Reparations and Scientific Uncertainty: The Role of Computational Models in International Climate Change Liability Georges Alexandre Lenferna, Philosophy Department, University of Washington, Seattle, USA Overview: This paper examines whether despite scientific uncertainty computational models of climate change can provide sufficient evidence in support of compensation claims by least developed countries harmed by climate change. Theme: Special Theme: Whose Climate? Negotiating the Governance of Environmental ChangeSynergy between Population Policy, Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Dr. Madeline Weld, Population Institute Canada, Ottawa, Canada Dr. Jane N. O’Sullivan, School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia Overview: Population growth multiplies the climate challenge. Enhanced support for voluntary family planning could reduce adaptation and mitigation burden by over 40% this century while improving development outcomes. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans Climate Change Governance in Megadiverse Countries: The Case of REDD+ in Latin America Alicia Guzmán León, Tec de Monterrey, Mexico City, Mexico Overview: REDD+ is currently implemented in 56 countries. Its effectiveness resides on its capacity to adapt to each context. What are the implications of REDD+ to governance locally, nationally, and globally? Theme: Special Theme: Whose Climate? Negotiating the Governance of Environmental Change
C400	Impacts on HumansThe Regulatory Uphill Battle of Reducing Ground-Level Ozone in a Changing Climate Dr. Christian Reuten, Air Quality, RWDI AIR Inc., Calgary, Canada Dr. Bruce Ainslie, Environment Canada, Vancouver, Canada Dr. Douw G. Steyn, Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Dr. Peter L. Jackson, Natural Resources and Environmental Studies Institute, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, Canada Dr. Ian McKendry, Department of Geography, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Overview: Future temperature increases in urban centres might increase ground-level ozone concentrations and require additional regulatory reduction efforts. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on HumansEvidences of Climate Change and Residents’ Vulnerability in Lagos Mainland, Nigeria Dr. Olajoke Abolade, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology,Ogbomoso Nigeria., Ogbomoso, Nigeria Dr. Folasade Oyenike Adigun, David Oyinlade Adejumobi, Department of Urban and Regional Planning Faculty of environmental Sciences, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Nigeria Mohammed Hussani, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria, Igbaja, Nigeria Overview: This paper examines evidences of climate change and residents vulnerability in Lagos Mainland, Nigeria. Theme: Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans The Distributional and Welfare Effects of the Emission Trading Scheme on Australian Households Trang Tran, UNE Business School, University of New England, Armidale, Australia Overview: Effects of emission trading between sectors in Australian economy on price of goods and services, them on distribution and welfare of households. Five simulations of revenue-recycling are examined. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses
C485	Climate Change ResponsesA University’s Role in Responding to Climate Change Nelson Cainghog, Padayon Public Service Office, University of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines Dr. J. Prospero de Vera, Office of the Vice President for Public Affairs, University of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines Overview: Using data from documents, the University of the Philippines’ role in responding to climate change in the Philippines is examined using models of scholarship as discovery, integration, application and teaching. Theme: Technical, Political and Social ResponsesThe Long Shadow of Disasters: Impacts of Framing Contests on National-Local Power Relations and Decentralized Disaster Governance Dr. Kristoffer Berse, National College of Public Administration and Governance, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines Dr. J. Prospero de Vera, Office of the Vice President for Public Affairs, University of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines Overview: The paper examines the impacts of national-local power relations and decentralized disaster governance policies on the role of the private sector, international institutions, and civil society in post-disaster policymaking. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses Environmental Health Risk Assessment as a Solution to Climate Change “Policymaking Failure” Dr. Peter Carter, Environmental Health, Climate Emergency Institute, Pender Island, Canada Overview: A solution to what we term “policymaking failure” is using the IPCC AR5 science in an environmental health risk assessment with recommendations, which is not done by the AR5. Theme: Technical, Political and Social Responses
Theatre	Late Additions 2 (Check board for additions)

16:25-16:30	BREAK
16:30-17:00	CONFERENCE CLOSING (Held in the Theatre

Posted in Climate Change | Tagged Adaptation, Canada, China, Clean Energy, Climate Change, Climate Change Denial, Climate Change Deniers, Climate Skeptics, Conference, Democratization, Desalination, Earth Day, Economics, Education, electrical power, Electricity, Emissions, Energy, Energy Storage, Environment, Fossil Fuels, Global Population, Global Warming, greenhouse gas, Iceland, India, IPCC, Mauritius, Mitigation, Nuclear, NYC, Paris 2015, Physics, Population, Power, Power Plants, Rekjavic, Science, Seattle, Solar Energy, Sustainability, Technology, US, Vancouver, Water, World Population | 4 Comments

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